{"id":2259,"date":"2017-07-09T13:46:57","date_gmt":"2017-07-09T20:46:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/?p=2259"},"modified":"2017-07-09T13:46:57","modified_gmt":"2017-07-09T20:46:57","slug":"what-can-van-niekerk-do","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/?p=2259","title":{"rendered":"What Can van Niekerk Do?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Placeholder\"<\/a>I recently saw the question posed on the internet, "Can van Niekerk break the world record in the 200 meters?" To wit the response from most was a loud, "NO". That tends to be the response when talk of a long standing record arises. Longevity tends to breed the notion that a mark is invincible.<\/p>\n

I’ve seen enough records however, to know that eventually they all fall. Bob Beamon’s legendary 29′ 2.5" long jump elicited the phrase "Beamonesque" it was deemed so awesome and unbeatable – and it did last from 1968 until 1991. Then out of nowhere, in one meet, we had Carl Lewis (expected to break there record) at 29′ 1" LOSING to Mike Powell’s 29′ 4.5"! That’s how records go. The question isn’t will a record be broken, but what will it take to break the record. Because eventually, someone with the right skill set will come along and in the right moment, the right competition, a new standard is set. <\/p>\n

For example, speaking of the 200, it was once said of the previous record (19.32) that it would NEVER be broken – or at the very least, not in our lifetime. Nearly any one associated with the sport seemed to espouse that position. It seemed fairly simple to me however, that 19.32 was vulnerable! Why? Because Johnson was less about speed and more about speed endurance! Johnson had a 100 PR of 10.09, far slower than just about anyone else that had run sub 20 for the deuce. Similarly, as the event began to get "faster" in the mid 00s, it was sprinters between 10.00\/ 9.90 doing the bulk of the damage – Carter (10.00\/19.63) Spearmon (9.96\/19.65) Dix (9.88\/19.69). And previous 19.7\u2019s Pietro Mennea (10.01\/19.72) and Joe deLoach (10.03\/19.75) were not sub 10 sprinters \u2013 Mennea\u2019s record lasting from \u201879 to \u201896! Clearly, if the guys running the 100 got appreciably faster, AND gave a bit more focus to strength\/endurance work, faster 200s were possible. <\/p>\n

Enter Bolt, seen early as a 400 prodigy, dropping down to the 100 – and dropping to 9.58. Tyson Gay improving his 400 to 44.86 and his 100 to 9.69 – 19.56 200 before injury and surgery. And Bolt training partner Yohan Blake going 9.69\/19.26. It would seem that refocusing sprint training to incorporate more speed endurance, would yield much faster 200 times than focusing on sprint speed alone. <\/p>\n

Bringing us to the present and Wayde van Niekerk, who has a very unique set of marks to his credit – 9.93, 19.84, 30.81 and 43.03. Unique in that he’s the only sub 10, sub 20, and sub 44 athlete in history – and only Tyson Gay and Steve Williams join him as sub 10, sub 20 and sub 45. And also because he’s done all of the first three in the same season – and has gone 43.62 so far this year to go with those marks. Michael Johnson’s seasons seemed to focus around either the deuce or the quarter. Spending very little time in the 200 once he got the record in \u201896, as he spent ’97 thru ’99 pursuing the 400 record.<\/p>\n

As such, van Niekerk seems uniquely qualified to go after the 200 record. Faster in every other event than Michael Johnson who ran 19.32. Exceedingly faster\/stronger in the 300\/400 than current record holder Bolt and #2 Blake. Able to develop both is speed AND his speed endurance simultaneously! He \u201cshould\u201d be able to bring enough of both to the table to give 19.19 a good run for its money. <\/p>\n

Of course records don’t typically happen "on demand", but rather based on the situation. Johnson stumbled out of the blocks, then ran like Hell to 19.32. Blake (19.26) was pushed all the way thru the race by Dix (19.53) in history’s best 1\/2 finish. Tommie Smith’s 1968 record win in Mexico City was a come from behind afair as John Carlos had run a blazing 150. Bolt’s 19.19 was preceded by his 9.58 – a race in which he was pushed to the limit by Tyson Gay’s 9.71 in second. Bolt was at this peak for speed. Circumstances matter. And typically, so does the competition when it comes to the sprints.<\/p>\n

Take van Niekerk and his 400 record. Starting in lane nine, he had the pressure of two prior Olympic and World champions – and fellow sub 44s – to his inside. Running blindly he lead from start to finish. Resulting in his fantastic, easing at the tape, 43.03! So, what will it take to run faster than 19.19? I would think a hot race, which would require ample competition. Possibly two others in the race capable of 19.5x or better. That would require Blake back in form. Gatlin in form. Perhaps Merritt in form. Christian Coleman’s earlier races this year indicate that he could be in that category. As do previous runs by Andre de Grasse. Unfortunately, only deGrasse both currently fits the description and will also be running the event in London. <\/p>\n

So the likelihood of a record run in London, while not impossible, is likely improbable. More likely would be a race in 2018, an off year without a championship event – a season where athletes will have the freedom to race without trying to focus on a Major. The question then becomes, who will be ready to race at that level? It could give Blake more time to get back to form. Coleman will have an entire season as a professional. Trayvon Bromell should be fit again, and possibly better in the deuce. And deGrasse will have another season under his belt. These should be the contenders as Bolt will be gone and Gatlin likely gone if not simply aging. <\/p>\n

In either case, the man to beat should be van Niekerk. Who, in my humble opinion is capable of running faster than 19.19. Time will tell if I’m correct.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I recently saw the question posed on the internet, "Can van Niekerk break the world record in the 200 meters?" To wit the response from most was a loud, "NO". That tends to be the response when talk of a long standing record arises. Longevity tends to breed the notion that a mark is invincible. I’ve seen enough records however, to know that eventually they all fall. Bob Beamon’s legendary 29′ 2.5" long jump elicited the phrase "Beamonesque" it was deemed so awesome and unbeatable – and it did last from 1968 until 1991. Then out of nowhere, in one meet, we had Carl Lewis (expected to break there record) at 29′ 1" LOSING to Mike Powell’s 29′ 4.5"! That’s how records go. The question isn’t will a record be broken, but what will it take to break the record. Because eventually, someone with the right skill set will come along and in the right moment, the right competition, a new standard is set. For example, speaking of the 200, it was once said of the previous record (19.32) that it would NEVER be broken – or at the very least, not in our lifetime. Nearly any one associated with the sport seemed to espouse that position. It seemed fairly simple to me however, that 19.32 was vulnerable! Why? Because Johnson was less about speed and more about speed endurance! Johnson had a 100 PR of 10.09, far slower than just about anyone else that had run sub 20 for the deuce. Similarly, as the event began to get "faster" in the mid 00s, it was sprinters between 10.00\/ 9.90 doing the bulk of the damage – Carter (10.00\/19.63) Spearmon (9.96\/19.65) Dix (9.88\/19.69). And previous 19.7\u2019s Pietro Mennea (10.01\/19.72) and Joe deLoach (10.03\/19.75) were not sub 10 sprinters \u2013 Mennea\u2019s record lasting from \u201879 to \u201896! Clearly, if the guys running the 100 got appreciably faster, AND gave a bit more focus to strength\/endurance work, faster 200s were possible. Enter Bolt, seen early as a 400 prodigy, dropping down to the 100 – and dropping to 9.58. Tyson Gay improving his 400 to 44.86 and his 100 to 9.69 – 19.56 200 before injury and surgery. And Bolt training partner Yohan Blake going 9.69\/19.26. It would seem that refocusing sprint training to incorporate more speed endurance, would yield much faster 200 times than focusing on sprint speed alone. Bringing us to the present and Wayde van Niekerk, who has a very unique set of marks to his credit – 9.93, 19.84, 30.81 and 43.03. Unique in that he’s the only sub 10, sub 20, and sub 44 athlete in history – and only Tyson Gay and Steve Williams join him as sub 10, sub 20 and sub 45. And also because he’s done all of the first three in the same season – and has gone 43.62 so far this year to go with those marks. Michael Johnson’s seasons seemed to focus around either the deuce or the quarter. Spending very little time in the 200 once he got the record in \u201896, as he spent ’97 thru ’99 pursuing the 400 record. As such, van Niekerk seems uniquely qualified to go after the 200 record. Faster in every other event than Michael Johnson who ran 19.32. Exceedingly faster\/stronger in the 300\/400 than current record holder Bolt and #2 Blake. Able to develop both is speed AND his speed endurance simultaneously! He \u201cshould\u201d be able to bring enough of both to the table to give 19.19 a good run for its money. Of course records don’t typically happen "on demand", but rather based on the situation. Johnson stumbled out of the blocks, then ran like Hell to 19.32. Blake (19.26) was pushed all the way thru the race by Dix (19.53) in history’s best 1\/2 finish. Tommie Smith’s 1968 record win in Mexico City was a come from behind afair as John Carlos had run a blazing 150. Bolt’s 19.19 was preceded by his 9.58 – a race in which he was pushed to the limit by Tyson Gay’s 9.71 in second. Bolt was at this peak for speed. Circumstances matter. And typically, so does the competition when it comes to the sprints. Take van Niekerk and his 400 record. Starting in lane nine, he had the pressure of two prior Olympic and World champions – and fellow sub 44s – to his inside. Running blindly he lead from start to finish. Resulting in his fantastic, easing at the tape, 43.03! So, what will it take to run faster than 19.19? I would think a hot race, which would require ample competition. Possibly two others in the race capable of 19.5x or better. That would require Blake back in form. Gatlin in form. Perhaps Merritt in form. Christian Coleman’s earlier races this year indicate that he could be in that category. As do previous runs by Andre de Grasse. Unfortunately, only deGrasse both currently fits the description and will also be running the event in London. So the likelihood of a record run in London, while not impossible, is likely improbable. More likely would be a race in 2018, an off year without a championship event – a season where athletes will have the freedom to race without trying to focus on a Major. The question then becomes, who will be ready to race at that level? It could give Blake more time to get back to form. Coleman will have an entire season as a professional. Trayvon Bromell should be fit again, and possibly better in the deuce. And deGrasse will have another season under his belt. These should be the contenders as Bolt will be gone and Gatlin likely gone if not simply aging. In either case, the man to beat should be van Niekerk. Who, in my humble opinion is capable of running faster than 19.19. Time will tell if I’m correct.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[26,496,153,236,533,497],"class_list":["post-2259","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-bolt","tag-degrasse","tag-deloach","tag-johnson","tag-mennea","tag-van-niekerk"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/pa3DCY-Ar","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":2268,"url":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/?p=2268","url_meta":{"origin":2259,"position":0},"title":"The World Championships Hottest Matchup","author":"CHill","date":"July 26, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"What makes the World Championships THE hottest competition of the year is the matchups. The best of the best, gathered in one place to determine the best in the world in each event. In a meet of matchups, one should stand head and shoulders above the rest - the men's\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"400\"","block_context":{"text":"400","link":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/?tag=400"},"img":{"alt_text":"Sprinter Shadow","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/trackchill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/Sprinter-Shadow_thumb.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2185,"url":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/?p=2185","url_meta":{"origin":2259,"position":1},"title":"Rio Opening Weekend – 43.03 WR!","author":"CHill","date":"August 15, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Finally, we got Olympic track and field! And despite all the negatives coming in, the athletes didn't disappoint. Proving my constant point - there's NOTHING that needs to be changed about track and field other than getting the best athletes on the track (and field). THAT is the challenge of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Ayana\"","block_context":{"text":"Ayana","link":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/?tag=ayana"},"img":{"alt_text":"Track Section","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/trackchill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/Track-Section_thumb.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2181,"url":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/?p=2181","url_meta":{"origin":2259,"position":2},"title":"How Will London’s Defending Champions Fare?","author":"CHill","date":"August 2, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Heading into Rio will be several individuals that closed the deal and won gold in London. It's been four long years since the national anthem played for these individuals. They will come to Rio 26th dreams of repeating that success. Who will be able to close the deal again four\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Bolt\"","block_context":{"text":"Bolt","link":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/?tag=bolt"},"img":{"alt_text":"Placeholder","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/trackchill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/Placeholder_thumb.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2129,"url":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/?p=2129","url_meta":{"origin":2259,"position":3},"title":"The 400 WILL Be THE Event of 2016","author":"CHill","date":"April 17, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"We're only a few weeks into the 2016 outdoor season, and in spite of what's been crazy weather, it's clear that the men's \"quarter\" is going to be THE premier event of the year! Why do I say this? Look at what we've already seen. At the high school level,\u2026","rel":"","context":"With 1 comment","block_context":{"text":"With 1 comment","link":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/?p=2129#comments"},"img":{"alt_text":"Placeholder","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/trackchill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/Placeholder_thumb.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2347,"url":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/?p=2347","url_meta":{"origin":2259,"position":4},"title":"Six Matchups I’m Looking Forward To in 2019","author":"CHill","date":"November 24, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 Ok. The 2018 track season is well behind us now as cross country and marathons dominate the landscape. As a matter of fact, the indoor season is right around the corner, which means that many athletes are already back grinding in preparation for the first of the upcoming three\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Benjamin\"","block_context":{"text":"Benjamin","link":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/?tag=benjamin"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/trackchill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/Placeholder-150x150.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2097,"url":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/?p=2097","url_meta":{"origin":2259,"position":5},"title":"Beijing Review","author":"CHill","date":"September 2, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The Beijing World Championships are over and if you're a fan of the sport you were pleased with the competition. When Worlds first began back in 1983 it was all about a handful of nations - Britain, Germany, Soviet Union, and United States, with everyone else as filler. 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