{"id":504,"date":"2011-06-15T16:05:00","date_gmt":"2011-06-15T23:05:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/?p=504"},"modified":"2011-06-15T16:05:00","modified_gmt":"2011-06-15T23:05:00","slug":"nationals-preview-mens-100-us-jamaica","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/?p=504","title":{"rendered":"Nationals Preview \u2013 Men\u2019s 100, US & Jamaica"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"image\"<\/a><\/p>\n

In about one week\u2019s time we start the process of putting together our team for the World Championships. Four days of intense competition that will determine who gets to go to South Korea and who gets to go back to the drawing board. <\/p>\n

Perhaps the most intense and difficult of the squads to make, is the 100 meter dash team where it is common for .01sec or less to decide who goes and who stays home. A bad day, a bad start, a bad lean can mean the end of the journey. Add to the drama the fact that this year has already seen SEVENTEEN men under the once magical 10.00 barrier \u2013 six Americans, seven Jamaicans, four \u201cOthers\u201d \u2013 and it\u2019s no wonder that the Trials finals for the US and Jamaican men\u2019s squads in this event are two of the most highly anticipated races of the season. Two races that should live up to the hype.<\/p>\n

Before I begin let me say that I expect to see lots of changes on both squads from previous years. Heading into next week I see only two constants \u2013 Tyson Gay and Usain Bolt. Everyone else seems to be in a state of flux \u2013 previous stars falling a bit (Powell, Dix, et al), the previously struggling rising up (Mullings, Rodgers). Not to mention what looks like a potential youth movement (Blake, Ashmeade, Salaam, Mitchell). The big question is who can stand up to the pressure of the \u201cTrials\u201d?<\/p>\n

So without further adieu here\u2019s how I see the two squads shaking out after all is said and done. I\u2019m going six deep in my predictions as I\u2019m sure that will include individuals on both squads that will be looked at for potential relay duty, among others in related events.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

U.S. Men<\/h4>\n

I expect Tyson Gay to be razor sharp with his training geared solely on the 100. The key to Gay is always the start. Here that will affect his time, but not his place, as I just don\u2019t see anyone that can challenge him barring a catastrophic start or injury (knock on wood). The question is what will be happening behind him?<\/p>\n

Mike Rodgers has been the most consistent American this spring with 3 sub10\u2019s and a slowest time of 10.07, not counting the \u20133.4 mps negative wind race in New York. His consistency should pay off with a second place finish behind Gay. <\/p>\n

It\u2019s that third, and final, spot for Daegu that has been giving me fits. But after much thought I\u2019m going with what may not be a popular choice, but one that makes sense given how the season has gone \u2013 Justin Gatlin. Gatlin has been here before; understands the pressure; has been on a steady road of improvement; and I believe is back where he was in June of \u201806. Not that it will be easy, because I expect collegians Mookie Salaam and Maurice Mitchell to make it a tough race. I also expect Walter Dix to make it an interesting race. But like Gay he too suffers from inconsistent starting (i.e. first 30 meters) and hasn\u2019t seemed sharp enough to contend early or fit enough to run down the field. <\/p>\n

Outside of Tyson Gay, who may have the best top end on the planet, if you don\u2019t start well in the first 30 of this race, it will be a wrap. There will be a lot of familiar names that will not make the cut \u2013 Darvis Patton, Travis Padgett, Rae Edwards, Ivory Williams, Ryan Bailey, and Trell Kimmons could form a solid final of their own with all but Edwards having sub10 credentials. But it\u2019s all about who\u2019s ready next week, and this is how I see next week playing out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
1.<\/td>\nTyson Gay<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n9.74<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2.<\/td>\nMike Rodgers<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n9.88<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3.<\/td>\nJustin Gatlin<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n9.92<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4.<\/td>\nMookie Salaam<\/td>\n9.94<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5.<\/td>\nWalter Dix<\/td>\n9.95<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6.<\/td>\nMaurice Mitchell<\/td>\n9.98<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Jamaican Men<\/h4>\n

Usain Bolt has a bye in this event to Worlds and has given indications this season that he will not be competing in Kingston. So with that in mind my prediction assumes that if Bolt is in attendance it\u2019s as a spectator. If he does elect to compete simply insert Bolt into the top spot and move everyone else down a peg.<\/p>\n

With that said Mullings is clearly the man to beat in this race. He\u2019s lead the world for most of the spring, has a best of 9.80 and five sub10\u2019s to his credit this season. More importantly he has already been through the fire, going head to head with both Bolt and Gay and more than holding his own \u2013 he will be hard to intimidate. He confirms that with a win in Kingston.<\/p>\n

Behind Mullings look for two youngsters to join him in ushering in a era of change for Jamaica. Yohan Blake trains with Bolt and is not intimidated on the track. He\u2019s a tough competitor and will run Mullings hard and sew up the 2nd Daegu spot by 80 meters. The sea change in the Jamaican 100 will be completed by the man child Nikel Ashmeade, who should be the best of the closers in this field. <\/p>\n

I know, by now everyone is saying \u201cumm, what about Asafa?\u201d. While Powell ushered in a new era in Jamaican sprinting in 2004, Bolt and the current youth movement has caught up to the former WR holder who this season is looking like the \u201896 version of Carl Lewis \u2013 and that is how I see him finishing in this race. Nesta Carter looked ready to take this race (in Bolt\u2019s absence) at the end of last season, but has not looked as sharp and recently said he suffered hamstring issues at Pre. Frater, like Powell is up against a strong youth movement and will be out of the money here, as with Bolt\u2019s bye Jamaica will get three others into Daegu.<\/p>\n

And as with the US meet, there will be a lot of talent left on the cutting room floor \u2013 Mario Forsythe, Lerone Clarke, Dexter Lee, and Oshane Bailey to name a few. Good sprinters, but just not ready yet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
1.<\/td>\nSteve Mullings<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n9.83<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2.<\/td>\nYohan Blake<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n9.91<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3.<\/td>\nNikel Ashmeade<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n9.95<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4.<\/td>\nMichael Frater<\/td>\n9.96<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5.<\/td>\nAsafa Powell<\/td>\n9.97<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6.<\/td>\nNesta Carter<\/td>\n10.01<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

So when the smoke clears, we\u2019ll see how close I was in about 10 days time. Those who get tickets on the flight to Daegu will be facing a field that should include Ngoni Makusha (ZIM), Christophe Lemaitre (FRA), Richard Thompson (TRI), Gerald Phiri (ZAM), and Dwain Chambers (GBR) among others. <\/p>\n

But make no mistake, you have to go through these two squads to attempt to get a medal. So the outcome of these two races should settle a goodly portion of the Daegu final. Next I will attempt to decipher the women\u2019s event \u2013 which may be more difficult than the men \u2013 before taking a look at the 800 meters. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In about one week\u2019s time we start the process of putting together our team for the World Championships. Four days of intense competition that will determine who gets to go to South Korea and who gets to go back to the drawing board. Perhaps the most intense and difficult of the squads to make, is the 100 meter dash team where it is common for .01sec or less to decide who goes and who stays home. A bad day, a bad start, a bad lean can mean the end of the journey. Add to the drama the fact that this year has already seen SEVENTEEN men under the once magical 10.00 barrier \u2013 six Americans, seven Jamaicans, four \u201cOthers\u201d \u2013 and it\u2019s no wonder that the Trials finals for the US and Jamaican men\u2019s squads in this event are two of the most highly anticipated races of the season. Two races that should live up to the hype. Before I begin let me say that I expect to see lots of changes on both squads from previous years. Heading into next week I see only two constants \u2013 Tyson Gay and Usain Bolt. Everyone else seems to be in a state of flux \u2013 previous stars falling a bit (Powell, Dix, et al), the previously struggling rising up (Mullings, Rodgers). Not to mention what looks like a potential youth movement (Blake, Ashmeade, Salaam, Mitchell). The big question is who can stand up to the pressure of the \u201cTrials\u201d? So without further adieu here\u2019s how I see the two squads shaking out after all is said and done. I\u2019m going six deep in my predictions as I\u2019m sure that will include individuals on both squads that will be looked at for potential relay duty, among others in related events.   U.S. Men I expect Tyson Gay to be razor sharp with his training geared solely on the 100. The key to Gay is always the start. Here that will affect his time, but not his place, as I just don\u2019t see anyone that can challenge him barring a catastrophic start or injury (knock on wood). The question is what will be happening behind him? Mike Rodgers has been the most consistent American this spring with 3 sub10\u2019s and a slowest time of 10.07, not counting the \u20133.4 mps negative wind race in New York. His consistency should pay off with a second place finish behind Gay. It\u2019s that third, and final, spot for Daegu that has been giving me fits. But after much thought I\u2019m going with what may not be a popular choice, but one that makes sense given how the season has gone \u2013 Justin Gatlin. Gatlin has been here before; understands the pressure; has been on a steady road of improvement; and I believe is back where he was in June of \u201806. Not that it will be easy, because I expect collegians Mookie Salaam and Maurice Mitchell to make it a tough race. I also expect Walter Dix to make it an interesting race. But like Gay he too suffers from inconsistent starting (i.e. first 30 meters) and hasn\u2019t seemed sharp enough to contend early or fit enough to run down the field. Outside of Tyson Gay, who may have the best top end on the planet, if you don\u2019t start well in the first 30 of this race, it will be a wrap. There will be a lot of familiar names that will not make the cut \u2013 Darvis Patton, Travis Padgett, Rae Edwards, Ivory Williams, Ryan Bailey, and Trell Kimmons could form a solid final of their own with all but Edwards having sub10 credentials. But it\u2019s all about who\u2019s ready next week, and this is how I see next week playing out. 1. Tyson Gay 9.74 2. Mike Rodgers 9.88 3. Justin Gatlin 9.92 4. Mookie Salaam 9.94 5. Walter Dix 9.95 6. Maurice Mitchell 9.98     Jamaican Men Usain Bolt has a bye in this event to Worlds and has given indications this season that he will not be competing in Kingston. So with that in mind my prediction assumes that if Bolt is in attendance it\u2019s as a spectator. If he does elect to compete simply insert Bolt into the top spot and move everyone else down a peg. With that said Mullings is clearly the man to beat in this race. He\u2019s lead the world for most of the spring, has a best of 9.80 and five sub10\u2019s to his credit this season. More importantly he has already been through the fire, going head to head with both Bolt and Gay and more than holding his own \u2013 he will be hard to intimidate. He confirms that with a win in Kingston. Behind Mullings look for two youngsters to join him in ushering in a era of change for Jamaica. Yohan Blake trains with Bolt and is not intimidated on the track. He\u2019s a tough competitor and will run Mullings hard and sew up the 2nd Daegu spot by 80 meters. The sea change in the Jamaican 100 will be completed by the man child Nikel Ashmeade, who should be the best of the closers in this field. I know, by now everyone is saying \u201cumm, what about Asafa?\u201d. While Powell ushered in a new era in Jamaican sprinting in 2004, Bolt and the current youth movement has caught up to the former WR holder who this season is looking like the \u201896 version of Carl Lewis \u2013 and that is how I see him finishing in this race. Nesta Carter looked ready to take this race (in Bolt\u2019s absence) at the end of last season, but has not looked as sharp and recently said he suffered hamstring issues at Pre. Frater, like Powell is up against a strong youth movement and will be out of the money here, as with Bolt\u2019s bye Jamaica will get three others into Daegu. And as with the US meet, there will be a lot of talent left on the cutting room floor \u2013 Mario Forsythe, Lerone Clarke, Dexter Lee, and Oshane Bailey to name a few. Good sprinters, but just not ready yet. 1. Steve Mullings 9.83 2. Yohan Blake 9.91 3. Nikel Ashmeade 9.95 4. Michael Frater 9.96 5. Asafa Powell 9.97 6. Nesta Carter 10.01   So when the smoke clears, we\u2019ll see how close I was in about 10 days time. Those who get tickets on the flight to Daegu will be facing a field that should include Ngoni Makusha (ZIM), Christophe Lemaitre (FRA), Richard Thompson (TRI), Gerald Phiri (ZAM), and Dwain Chambers (GBR) among others. But make no mistake, you have to go through these two squads to attempt to get a medal. So the outcome of these two races should settle a goodly portion of the Daegu final. Next I will attempt to decipher the women\u2019s event \u2013 which may be more difficult than the men \u2013 before taking a look at the 800 meters.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-504","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/pa3DCY-88","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":522,"url":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/?p=522","url_meta":{"origin":504,"position":0},"title":"First 2011 Medal Watch List","author":"CHill","date":"July 2, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"With the team selected for Daegu, it\u2019s time to start looking at where our medals our. So following is my first Medal Watch List of 2011. My final list of 2010 can be found here for comparison. As you can see the list has already undergone some major renovation since\u2026","rel":"","context":"With 4 comments","block_context":{"text":"With 4 comments","link":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/?p=522#comments"},"img":{"alt_text":"image","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/lh6.ggpht.com\/-N2KFgqmExQ4\/Tg_NYN_y-UI\/AAAAAAAAAQg\/EEtWv3g0Nog\/image_thumb.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2574,"url":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/?p=2574","url_meta":{"origin":504,"position":1},"title":"Amazing US Male Sprint Depth","author":"CHill","date":"November 22, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Olympics and World Championships used to be fairly easy to predict. The US and Jamaica would split the sprint medals. Kenya and Ethiopia would split the middle and long distances. Europe would win the throws. And a hodge podge of athletes would scramble after the jumps and multi medals.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Baker\"","block_context":{"text":"Baker","link":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/?tag=baker"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/trackchill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/3FB9A06F-356C-4813-87A6-0E74F9931041_4_5005_c-150x150.jpeg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":498,"url":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/?p=498","url_meta":{"origin":504,"position":2},"title":"Demps, Tarmoh, Henrie Out at NCAA\u2019s","author":"CHill","date":"June 9, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Usually there isn\u2019t much to say after the first day of the NCAA Championships. After all, the bulk of the finals are on Friday and Saturday. But Wednesday may have already started shaping those finals as three big names didn\u2019t move through. The semifinals started blazing hot with the 4x1\u2019s.\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"image","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/lh3.ggpht.com\/-q5JRZ77O0zI\/TfDduzhfqAI\/AAAAAAAAANA\/-apXXO1z7NY\/image_thumb.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":502,"url":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/?p=502","url_meta":{"origin":504,"position":3},"title":"Time to Start Looking Forward to Nationals","author":"CHill","date":"June 13, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"After a week that left me wondering what the heck is going on, it\u2019s time to start to attempt to look at some of the National Trials that are coming up to try and gauge what Daegu is going to look like. And after Des Moines and New York that\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"image","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/lh5.ggpht.com\/-I98Xgm09ySQ\/TfbA21oDEcI\/AAAAAAAAANg\/U8ovxRTi8is\/image_thumb.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":838,"url":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/?p=838","url_meta":{"origin":504,"position":4},"title":"Video Review – New Balance Boston Indoor","author":"CHill","date":"February 6, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s often interesting to review results online, then later have an opportunity to watch video of a race \u2013 or in this case two hours of a meet on television. While times and distances certainly have meaning, sometimes it\u2019s how those results are derived that tell a completely different story.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Anderson\"","block_context":{"text":"Anderson","link":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/?tag=anderson"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1033,"url":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/?p=1033","url_meta":{"origin":504,"position":5},"title":"A Crowd is Starting to Form in the Hurdles","author":"CHill","date":"April 9, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s early in the season, and few of the top athletes have made it to the track yet, but the 110 hurdlers are doing what they do \u2013 compete! I love the hurdlers. For starters it\u2019s one of the most exciting events on the track. There\u2019s speed. 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