{"id":625,"date":"2011-12-18T11:14:00","date_gmt":"2011-12-18T19:14:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/?p=625"},"modified":"2011-12-22T13:30:59","modified_gmt":"2011-12-22T21:30:59","slug":"very-very-early-london-favorites","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/?p=625","title":{"rendered":"Very, Very Early London Favorites"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"Christmas is less than a week away, and we\u2019re within counting distance of the dropping of the ball in Times Square and the start of the New Year. So it must be time to start talking about the Olympics!<\/p>\n

Olympic talk will dominate the world of track and field in 2012 \u2013 it always does in an Olympic year. So what better way to start\/instigate discussion, than to put some early predictions out there. Of course we don\u2019t even know who will be competing in London just yet, since everyone will have a selection process of some sort to go through. So instead of saying these are my predicted \u201cwinners\u201d, this is my list of \u201cFavorites\u201d for London. Those athletes that I think if everything goes right for them could take the top of the podium at the Games.<\/p>\n

So here is my list of favorites, followed by some general comments by competitive areas. Let the debates begin!<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Event<\/strong><\/td>\nMen\u2019s Favorite<\/strong><\/td>\nWomen\u2019s Favorite<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
100<\/strong><\/td>\nYohan Blake<\/td>\nCarmelita Jeter<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
200<\/strong><\/td>\nTyson Gay<\/td>\nVeroinica Campbell Brown<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
400<\/strong><\/td>\nLaShawn Merritt<\/td>\nAllyson Felix<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
800<\/strong><\/td>\nDavid Rudisha<\/td>\nMariya Savinova<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1500<\/strong><\/td>\nSilas Kiplagat<\/td>\nMorgan Uceny<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5000<\/strong><\/td>\nBernard Lagat<\/td>\nVivian Cheruiyot<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10,000<\/strong><\/td>\nKenenisa Bekele<\/td>\nVivian Cheruiyot<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Steeple<\/strong><\/td>\nEzekiel Kemboi<\/td>\nYuliya Zarapova<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
110H\/100H<\/strong><\/td>\nXiang Liu<\/td>\nSally Pearson<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
400H<\/strong><\/td>\nJeshua Anderson<\/td>\nLashinda Demus<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
High Jump<\/strong><\/td>\nIvan Ukhov<\/td>\nBlanka Vlasic<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pole Vault<\/strong><\/td>\nRenaud Lavillenie<\/td>\nFabiana Murer<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Long Jump<\/strong><\/td>\nMitchell Watt<\/td>\nBrittney Reese<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Triple Jump<\/strong><\/td>\nChristian Taylor<\/td>\nOlha Saladuha<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Shot Put<\/strong><\/td>\nChristian Cantwell<\/td>\nValerie Adams<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Discus<\/strong><\/td>\nRobert Harting<\/td>\nYanfeng Li<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hammer<\/strong><\/td>\nKoji Murofushi<\/td>\nTatyana Lysenko<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Javelin<\/strong><\/td>\nAndreas Thorkildsen<\/td>\nMaria Abakumova<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Multis<\/strong><\/td>\nTrey Hardee<\/td>\nTatyana Chernova<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4×1<\/strong><\/td>\nJamaica<\/td>\nUnited States<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4×4<\/strong><\/td>\nUnited States<\/td>\nUnites States<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

Sprint Comments<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Perhaps the hardest events to predict are the sprints. And I\u2019m sure my early favorites here will be a bit controversial \u2013 primarily because I\u2019ve not put Bolt as favorite in either sprint. Blake is just improving too rapidly. And while Bolt & Gay are one and two all-time and ultimate warriors, both have the Achilles heel of poor starts. If either nails it he could win, but Blake is the most consistent from the blocks. As for Gay and the deuce, in limited action he ran 19.58 & 19.40 (straight) while battling injuries in \u201809\/\u201910 and dropped 44.89. Add his screaming turn and the fact that all that was done early season without peaking, and don\u2019t forget he\u2019s 9.7 on any given day with a 9.69 PR and he has all the elements \u2013 just needs good health. And dare I say that while Bolt has dominated the last three Majors, he hasn\u2019t faced Gay, or the improved Blake. Stay tuned! Merritt over James, yes. James Improved tremendously in 2011, but Merritt lead the world with just a handful of races and barely lost in Daegu with no base behind him. James will have to get to sub44 to take London. This battle will be HOT!<\/p>\n

Jeter wins without a great start in Daegu. She\u2019s got to be the fave. Veronica Campbell Brown is looking to win her THIRD in a row in the deuce, and is coming off her first Worlds win. She\u2019s my early favorite but this is Felix\u2019 favorite event and she doesn\u2019t take losing lightly. And the spectre of Jeter continuing to improve here makes this the hottest women\u2019s sprint in London. On the other hand I see Felix as the best female quarter miler in the world \u2013 and yes I know that Richards Ross hasn\u2019t retired. We\u2019ll see if Felix doubles again, but if she does she\u2019s my early favorite here because she now has a year of doubling experience under belt and she and coach WILL make adjustments.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Hurdle Comments<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

in the 110 hurdles, Dayron Robles and David Oliver have shown that they are as good as it gets when healthy, but there is something about a healthy Xiang Liu when the chips are on the line! Just go back and look at that Daegu race. He can be beaten, but someone is going to have to get out and run away from him to do it. The men\u2019s long hurdles were a mess this year. I finally went with the young stud poised for growth in Anderson. The vets are aging and just didn\u2019t get it done this year. We could be turning the corner of change in this event.<\/p>\n

Sally Pearson. Sub 12.30. It\u2019s going to take a lot for others to dial into her area code at this point. The long hurdles, on the other hand has several women capable of crossing that line first, but for now I\u2019m going with the experience and talent of Demus.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Middle Distance Comments<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

These events are beginning to develop solid cores of favorites. In the men\u2019s half, right now gold is Rudisha\u2019s to lose. He\u2019s that good. Kaki could get there. But right now Rudisha rules. The metric mile is a bit more of a mystery, but Kiprop and Kiplagat are the heads and tails on the coin. Will be interesting to see if Kaki runs it more in 2012 though!<\/p>\n

On the women\u2019s side Savinova looks to be settling in in the half mile. Semenya is lying in wait, but the spirit seems lacking. In the metric mile there are several capable women right now \u2013 probably about half dozen or so. But Uceny has the most solid\/consistent race pattern. This will be another exciting final in London.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Distance Comments<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

On the one hand I believe Bekele to be back \u2013 and that means trouble for everyone else. On the other I don\u2019t think he will double. With that in mind I think that \u201cOld Man\u201d Lagat is still the world\u2019s best kicker not named Kenenisa, so he\u2019s my early 5000 favorite. In the 10,000 Bekele v Farah could be the new Bekele v Gebrsellassie!<\/p>\n

On the women\u2019s side Cheruiyot is an easy call in the 5000, as there is no one in her league right now. The 10,000 is the question mark. Will the other women let her have her way there? For now she\u2019s my double favorite, but only just barely. Because I can\u2019t believe they will just let her run easy here before running her \u201cbetter\u201d event.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Jumps Comments<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

I know Jesse Williams just won gold, and I do have faith in Jesse. But Ukhov has the ability to jump higher than anyone we\u2019ve seen in a very long time \u2013 and he\u2019s seasoned. All things being equal he gets my nod \u2013 but prove me wrong Jesse. In the pole vault not sure what happened with athletes coming out of nowhere in Daegu, but Lavillenie is the most consistent of the last few seasons \u2013 and he jumps high too. Mitchell Watt fell prey to an old lion in Daegu \u2013 and there are a lot of young lions waiting in the wings. But he rates early fave for me off of consistency on the 2011 season. Taylor gets my nod in the triple jump because of his consistency as well \u2013 he consistently comes through and gets better in the clutch!<\/p>\n

Blanka Vlasic is a member of my All Swagger team! She has it in droves and a subpar Blanka made a run at gold in Daegu. Gotta be the favorite. Murer gets the nod in the pole vault as Isinbayeva works her way back to form. My guess is that this may be one of the first changes I make next year. Brittney Reese is a talent and is my early fave. But a warning as Darya Klishina is tighter technically \u2013 and this IS a technical event. You can only win off of natural ability for so long. The women\u2019s triple jump has a handful of women within a finger\u2019s width of each other. Saladuha gets the early nod off my gut.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Throws Comments<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

I know the men\u2019s shot put is a contradiction to what I\u2019m going to say, but I find that in the throws solid vets tend to rule. That\u2019s why all the names in my men\u2019s throws are so familiar, starting with Christian Cantwell and the shot put. I don\u2019t see the big man getting pushed off the podium in London and he\u2019s my favorite for the top spot. He will bring the shot back in line with the men\u2019s discus (Harting), men\u2019s hammer (Murofushi), men\u2019s javelin (Thokildsen), women\u2019s shot (Adams), women\u2019s discus (Li), women\u2019s hammer (Lysenko) and women\u2019s javelin (Abakumova). Someone is going to have to come take the gold from them. That said Spotakova was oh so close to getting the nod from me in the women\u2019s javelin.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Multis<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Hardee gets the nod in the Decathlon because he\u2019s more complete than Eaton. But this is another of those, could go either way picks. On the women\u2019s side I went with Chernova because of steady growth. But this could be another pick em by the time they get to London because Ennis will be at home.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Relays <\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Jamaica gets the easy nod for the 4×1 because they\u2019ve finished the race and set two WR\u2019s in the last three Majors. However, I\u2019ve felt for a decade that the WR is soft \u2013 and it\u2019s still soft. And the U.S. showed \u2013 without Tyson Gay \u2013 that it could run leg for leg with Jamaica in Daegu, until disaster struck! This event will be one of those barber shop\/internet message board conversation pieces throughout 2012. As for the 4×4, Jeremy Wariner \u2013 injured. Tony McQuay \u2013 injured. Intermediate hurdlers \u2013 subpar. And LaShwn Merritt still crossed the line first. Hard not to make the U.S. the favorite.<\/p>\n

Jamaica set a NR, and was still behind the first place U.S. squad in Daegu. The U.S. is the favorite, but when you have VCB, if you can get her close, you have a shot! The U.S. women are as strong a favorite here as the men are. IN the post Eastern Bloc era, U.S. squads have turned in the most consistent set of marks in history. And Felix is one of those \u201crelay beasts\u201d that has the ability to bread a 4×4 wide open.<\/p>\n

Ok, there are my Early London Favorites. I wanted to get those out there before we actually hit 2012 and the indoor season gets going in earnest. My gut says this is going to be one VERY exciting season.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Christmas is less than a week away, and we\u2019re within counting distance of the dropping of the ball in Times Square and the start of the New Year. So it must be time to start talking about the Olympics! Olympic talk will dominate the world of track and field in 2012 \u2013 it always does […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[8],"class_list":["post-625","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-olympics"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/pa3DCY-a5","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/625","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=625"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/625\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":629,"href":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/625\/revisions\/629"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=625"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=625"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/trackchill.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=625"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}