It’s time to start the selection process for the U.S. Olympic Team. First stop, Houston and the Marathon Trials, which astonishingly will be the first time that the men and women’s teams will be selected at the same time!
The storyline that everyone was looking forward to with this race was the anticipated first ever marathon of Galen Rupp – American Record Holder in the 10,000 meters. That will now be a non-story as Rupp has withdrawn from the Trials, having decided to put all of his eggs into his 10,000 meter basket. His withdrawal has taken away much of the mystery from the men’s race, which should be dominated by American Record Holder Ryan Hall. Hall’s best of 2:04:58 being light years ahead of anyone else in the field. Even taking into account the potentially “windy” nature of his AR run, Hall has still run in the 2:08 range which is still considerably better than the competition. He should win this easily.
Hall’s nearest competitor on the clock is Meb Keflezighi who has run four races in the low 2:09 range. If anyone is to challenge Hall it would be Meb, because after these two, no one else has yet to break the 2:10 barrier in the event. That leaves the battle for the third spot coming down to two men that have run near that barrier. The fastest on the clock is Dathan Ritzenhein who has run exactly 2:10:00. Ritz’ next best clocking, however, is 2:12:33 – the 2:12 being the most recent (11/7/10) as his 2:10 was run back in 2009. The other runner in the 2:10 range is Brett Gotcher (2:10:36) a best that dates back to January of 2010 – from what I can find his only marathon to date.
Given Ritzenhein’s work over 10,000 meters and his times over the marathon I would have to give him the edge in the battle for the third spot. So my prediction for the men’s team to London would be:
- 2:10:20 – Ryan Hall
- 2:10:40 – Meb Keflezighi
- 2:12:10 – Dathan Ritenhein
With the withdrawal of Rupp from the men’s race, the women’s race actually becomes the more exciting event – in part because it is actually deeper on the top end than the men’s, and also because it has more interesting storylines. One of the big storylines being the participation of Shalane Flanagan, who like her male counterpart Rupp is the American Record Holder in the 10,000 meters. Unlike Rupp, however, Flanagan has tackled the marathon before, having run 2:28:40 back in 2010.
She won’t be entering the race as the favorite however, at least not based on previous times. Ahead of her on the clock are four women with considerable experience. At the top of that list is Desiree Davila (2:22:38) making her #3 American All Time behind AR holder Deena Kastor (2:19:36) and 1984 Olympic Champion Joan Samuelson (2:21:21). Behind Davila on the clock and in her PR race is Kara Goucher at 2:24:52. Goucher is a true vet of the distances having been around since the 2000 season at the elite level. Kara has moved up in distance over the years and sports a 30:55:16 best in the 10,000 meters to go with her marathon PR – she’s a veteran racer and will be tough to beat. So will Magdalena Boulet, who comes in with a best of 2:26:22 for the marathon. Boulet has also been around for most of the last decade and has competed at both 10,000 meters and the marathon. Finally, before getting to Flanagan, we have Amy Hastings (2:27:03) a youngster in this group who’s PR came in her debut marathon in Los Angeles last year. She trains with the Mammoth Track Club which is home to Anna Pierce and Morgan Uceny, so I expect her to be very competitive.
That brings us to Shalane Flanagan, 7th in last year’s World Championships 10,000 meters and bronze medalist in the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Flanagan has easily been the most successful of the U.S. distance runners in recent years. The question in Houston will be just how well she moves up against a very strong group of women. As outlined above her task won’t be easy. Davila and Goucher are veterans and more used to running the marathon distance. Hastings has younger legs, and I like her training group. I’m a little out of my range here in the marathon, but I’m going to make the following call for the team heading to London.
- 2:28:00 – Desiree Davila
- 2:28:10 – Kara Goucher
- 2:28:30 – Amy Hastings
I’m a Flanagan fan, but I think asking her to upstage all of these women may be a bit much. Although I see her somewhere in that 2:28:40 range at the end, which means that she will be in the hunt and could certainly impose her will on the field. The real question is: can they break her? And that will be the story to watch during this race.
Finally, I would be remiss if I didn’t acknowledge the presence of Deena Kastor in the race. Kastor was bronze medalist in the ’04 Games, the current AR holder, and the #6 performer all time in the event. She’s been competing at various distances since the late 90’s and comes in as the Grand Dame of the U.S. women’s distance runners. Her qualifying mark for this meet was “only” 2:36:20, which doesn’t bode well for an Olympic berth. But make no mistake that she has been a very valuable member of many U.S. teams and deserves props for still being in the hunt at this stage of her career. I wish her well.
So there you have it. My pre-race look at the Marathon Trials. There will be much more to say after Saturday’s race as we begin to look at how competitive the squad will be in London.