As I sat down to finalize my Predictions for Paris, I kept coming back to the same phrase – too close to call! Heading into these Games, we are blessed to have a literal cornucopia of talented athletes that we’ll get to watch go head to head in the Paris stadium. Add the installation of a new, fine tuned. Mondo surface. And there will be more than a few exciting events. There will be something special happening daily. Now, I check out the internet daily, and I know that many people have what they consider to be “strong” favorites in most events. I think in most instances however, there are multiple individuals that could win an event.

I will say that there are a handful of events with athletes that I consider “strong” favorites. Starting with the women’s 1500m. Faith Kipyegon (KEN) is the strongest favorite in the meet in my opinion. She’s the WR holder, and is capable of running in that area at will. Similarly pole vaulter Mondo Duplantis (SWI) is about as strong. Only on rare occasions does Mondo fail at a height. I must also include Grant Holloway (USA) the three time world champion, and #2 all time in the 110H. Grant has faltered only once since 2019, taking silver in Tokyo ’21. He’s so good early, that only his own late mistakes can cost him. Similarly, both Faith and Mondo will have to beat themselves to avoid gold in Paris. If Faith, Grant and Mondo are “A” level faves, I consider Sydney McLaughlin Levrone an “A-” favorite. Yes, I know that most people consider Syd unbeatable, however she does have a strong competitor knocking at her door, Femke Bol. Ironically Femke sits where Syd sat in 2021 – dangerously close to the WR holder! Close enough to be a true threat. Dalilah wasn’t able to hold off Sydney forever. Tokyo was the “take over” meet for Sydney. Can she continue to hold off Femke? I also consider Ryan Crouser (USA) an A- favorite. Like Sydney, Ryan holds the WR in the shot put. He’s the defending Olympic champion, and was the World champion in ’22/’23. However, rival Joe Kovacs (USA) was World champion in ’19; is the only other putter to throw over 23m; and is always right there close to Crouser in every competition! Injury gave Crouser a later start this year, and while he once again defeated Kovacs at Trials. Any falter by Ryan could result in a win by Joe.

Next, I have a couple of “A–” favorites. They are “A double minus” favorites, because while they win much more than they lose, they have two or three legitimate threats close enough to take them down. First is Karsten Warholm (NOR). Warholm is the WR holder, multiple World champion, and defending Olympic champion in the 400H. In spite of this success, he enters Paris with two men in hot pursuit – Rai Benjamin (USA) & Alison dos Santos (BRA). The second and third fastest hurdlers in history. Each has beaten him once outside of a major. Both defeated an injured Warholm in Eugene ’22. One of the biggest questions in Paris will be whether or not either of them can repeat that win over a healthy Warholm with everything on the line! My other double minus favorite is Noah Lyles (USA) in the 200m. Lyles is a three time world champion in the event, with only two losses since turning pro in 2017! Unfortunately, one of those was in the Tokyo Games where he took the bronze. He also has three challengers with bests under 19.60 – Erriyon Knighton (USA), Letsile Tebogo (BOT), and Kenny Bednarek (USA). Noah has defeated all three, but on different occasions, each has come within a tenth of a second of an upset. And Kenny took silver to Noah’s bronze in Tokyo. This race promises to be something special.

Ok, no more “favorites” for me. Is the theme for this year’s Olympics beginning to come into focus? There’s such a plethora of outstanding competitors. You name an event, and I’ll give you two, three, four or more legitimate contenders for the medals! So many that by the end of these Games I have no doubt that we’ll be able to use the phrase, “the greatest show on earth”, to describe Paris 2024! On that note, let me outline a couple more events that are guaranteed to raise blood pressures and excite fans.

I’ll start with the men’s 100m, since a lot of folk have already awarded these medals. In most cases to Kishane Thompson (JAM) based on his 9.77 in Kingston. While he does have the best time going in, he’s the least experienced athlete in this field. While he’s certainly displayed the talent to win. He has yet to navigate the waters of an Olympics or World Championships. This includes getting through the rounds; managing energy; and the pressure of world class competition of this depth – specifically what it feels like to have someone with equal strength accelerate with him. Neither countrymen Asafa Powell nor Usain Bolt won in their first attempts in Olympic or World Championship competition! We’ll see how Kishane does in his. From the least experienced to the most experienced athlete, Fred Kerley (USA). Fred has silver from Tokyo, and gold from Eugene. Yes, Budapest was a “down” meet for Fred. But if you go back to Doha, where Fred took bronze in the 400m, he’s the most “medal winning” athlete in the field – with the exception of Noah Lyles (USA). And let’s not forget that Fred has the fastest PB in the field at 9.76, and has run 9.7 twice before in a single meet! He ran a pair of 9.8’s at Trials, so it’s headed back to form. On to Noah, he has a gold medal in every major championship since 2019! Only missing out in Tokyo, where he took bronze in the 200m. Most of his gold has been won over 200m, but working on his 100m last year, he won both the 100 & 200 in Budapest. Letsile Tebogo also medaled in both sprints in Budapest – silver 100m, bronze 200m. This in his first season competing as a “senior” athlete. He was previously a gold medalist as a U20 sprinter. Last year’s Budapest 4th place finisher, Oblique Seville (JAM) was literally thousandths of a second from silver! He’s back with a new PB, and a hunger to move up his finish. The point here is that there are some very strong sprinters here, and time itself won’t win this. As a matter of fact, if we’re looking at times, many say that Noah “can’t” win, because he “can’t” run 9.7. However here’s a quick fact. Kishane’s 9.77 was run with a wind of +0.9 mps. Noah’s recent 9.81 with a -0.3mps wind. IF, you “adjust” both times for wind and altitude, Kishane’s race converts to 9.81 and Noah’s to 9.79. By the way, the defending Olympic champion, Lamont Jacobs (ITA) is back and has run faster this year prior to the Games, than he had run in ’21! The field however, is that much stronger than Tokyo’s. This race is going to be hot with just about anyone making the final having a shot. Especially the men named above. Experience v raw talent! At the US Trials, two of the three semi final winners did not make the team to Paris! In Tokyo, two of the three semi final winners did not medal! And the gold medalist was not the leader on the clock entering the Olympics! As a matter of fact, the winner in Rio, was not the leader on the clock entering the Games either. Just some facts to marinate on. I did say in a previous post on this event, that I would give a podium prediction before Paris. After changing my mind many many times, I’m going to say, Noah Lyles, Fred Kerley, Kishane Thompson. Ask me tomorrow and I might say something different.

I’ll finish with a race that’s changed a lot this year, and become very competitive, the men’s 400m. At the beginning of the year, the field looked like Eugene World champion Michael Norman (USA); two time World champion and Tokyo Olympic champion Steven Gardiner (BAH); former Olympic & World champion and WR holder Wayde van Niekerk (RSA); and former World and Olympic champion Kirani James. A very accomplished field to say the least. However, Kirani is aging, though still competitive. Gardiner is coming off of an injury that occurred in the middle of last year’s semi final in Budapest – and is often fighting injury. And van Niekerk, who’s been struggling to return to form from his own injury in 2018, withdrew from the 400m shortly after nations’ team rosters were announced. This is an Olympic year however, a year when new blood arises. Like Kishane Thompson (100m), Djamel Sedjati (800m), and Nickisha Pryce (400m). In the men’s 400m, we’ve seen several men really steep up their games this year. Starting with Christopher Morales Williams (CAN). Christopher began the year breaking the world indoor record in the 400m with a sizzling 44.49! He’s run 44.05 outdoors to become #=28 in history. Quincy Hall (USA) upset Norman at the US Trials. Then went to Europe and ran 43.80 to become #14 ever. Finally, oft injured Matthew Hudson Smith (GBR) went to the final meet before the Games and ran 43.74 – =#12 ever! Suddenly Paris has five men under 44 in Paris, with one on the cusp! With the “newbies” currently running faster than the “old men”! However, as I’ve said before, times don’t run, people do. And the oldies in this race have a lot of experience at this level. Bringing me back to the original statement in this post – too close to call. Norman is healthy, and but all accounts is the most talented athlete in this field. When healthy, Gardiner looks like he was born for this event. Kirani has won gold, silver, and bronze at Worlds and the Games! He knows how to reach the podium. Hall however, reminds me of Lee Evans. Not the prettiest form ever, but relentless in the final stretch. Hudson Smith looked almost effortless in his PB run. And Morales Williams has just found ways to win. Speaking of finding ways to win, let me introduce Alexander Doom (BEL). The World indoor champion with a best of 44.15. Like Hall and Morales Williams, Doom finds his way to the “tape” via strong stretch runs. Which is where this race will be run – in the final 50m! And truly, anyone mentioned above can pull off this win. It’s going to come down to the mental as much as the physical! This should be one of the most exciting stretch runs of the entire meet!

A couple of final thoughts. The most difficult events to predict are the women’s 100m and 200m. Specifically because the status of the Jamaican women is unknown. Shelly Ann Fraser Pryce, multiple Olympic and World champion has raced very little, and not been at her level of recent seasons. To complicated matters, she pulled out of the last available tune up meet at the last possible moment with pain in her leg. Meanwhile Shericka Jackson, two time World 200m champion, has been no where near form and had an unconfirmed injury on July 9th. At their best, both athletes are medal contenders, but they haven’t been those athletes all season. Yet, the question of, just how good are they now, goes unanswered until the first round of the 100m on August 2nd.

Before I finish this, I’ll get crucified if I don’t mention the women’s 100H as too close to call. Simply because most people consider it to be the toughest event currently in the sport. I will say that there are legitimately over a dozen women capable of making this final. All with seasons bests between 12.25/12.40! The final, and the medals will be determined by mistakes. Those that make the fewest mistakes will be in the final. The athletes that run cleanest in the final will get the medals. Simple, but complicated. That’s this Olympics in a nutshell. Talent abounds. So do experience; youthful exuberance; confidence; and nerves of steel. Which is why this could be the greatest track and field competition in history.