August 1st, the opening day of track and field in the Paris Olympics. We’re that close. Yet with nine Diamond League events done – one left before the opening ceremony. A full NCAA season completed. Numerous meets across the globe in the books. And every country’s selection process complete. The only thing that’s certain, is that we know who’s headed to the Paris stadium. Yes, we have some very strong favorites going in. Sydney McLaughlin Levrone, Mondo Duplantis, Faith Kipyegon to name a few. But if we learned anything from the US Trials (Athing MU & Brooke Anderson), anything can happen on any given day. That is why they compete. At any rate, there is a lot unknown heading into Paris. Here are some thoughts running through my head prior to the opening of the Games.
I’ll start with Sydney and Femke Bol. Yes, Sydney has had an outstanding season. However, so has Femke. A 49.17 indoor WR for 400m is very close to 48 on a smaller track. Turn to outdoors and her recent PB of 50.95 bears out that in spite of those that have put Sydney on an unreachable level, Femke is in deed within reach. Anyone that believes that Bol is just going to fool over and accept defeat, hasn’t been watching. I’m not saying she’s beating Sydney. As a matter of fact that’s not the reason I’m mentioning this duo. I’m doing so because I’m hoping that Femke doesn’t run the mixed relay for the Netherlands! This race is before any other finals, including the 400H. I want to see both women fresh, and ready to battle. Because even if she doesn’t win, Femke is the person most capable of doing so. I want to see the best race possible, with the best possible outcome for both! I want to see a complete, epic race. That means two fresh athletes – no other races on their legs. This race will be epic! It’s what the world deserves to see.
By the same token, I wish Noah would drop the 100m and focus on the 200m. I know that Noah is chasing greatness – and that is his right. However, the 100m is not an easy race unless someone is head and shoulders above the rest. This will be the toughest, deepest field in half a century! On the other hand, it’s my belief that he has a shot at the 200m WR without the rounds of the 100m in his legs. IF everyone brings their “A” game, it’s going to take a 9.7 level race to win in Paris. Not that Noah isn’t capable, his semi last year in Budapest was on that level without the mix race celebration. I just don’t think he can return with a sub 19.20 afterwards. However a WR in the deuce would be the talk of the rest of the Games if not the year! If he wants greatness, I believe that this is the proper path for Noah. Just my opinion.
The US men breaking the 4×1 WR would also ascribe greatness to the members of that squad. A task that I believe the following foursome is capable of: Christian Coleman to Fred Kerley to Kenny Bednarek to Noah Lyles. They just need to move the stick adequately. Something they are certainly capable of, which, by the way, given my previous scenario, could net Noah two WRs – and obviously two golds. A rather legendary performance if achieved. Of course Noah wants four gold medals. The issue however, is that that chase must begin with two. So, we’ll see.
Speaking of legendary performances, that’s what’s in store with the men’s 400H! Tokyo gave us the first sub 46 in history. While I’m not a fan of, “world record watches” – and yes I know I’ve mentioned two “possibilities” previously. I do strongly believe that the men’s 400H is under siege. This is not an event with a single strong competitor, but a race with THREE men that are capable of the task! This is the highest quality race we’ve seen since the 1968 men’s 100m, which had four WR setters in the race. As for a favorite, I see Warholm as the favorite, but only slightly. I truly believe that any of, Alison dos Santos, Karsten Warholm, or Rai Benjamin, is capable of both winning and breaking the record. As a matter of fact, if we see multiple men under the current best, I will not be shocked! This after the first sub 47, and then WR lasted for over three decades. This, and the women’s 400H, will be must see TV.
I’m going to circle back to the mixed relay for a moment. I have several reasons why I’m not a fan of this event, but I’m only going to focus on one today. That would be it’s unintended consequences. The event was created ostensibly to give nations without depth a chance at relay medals. It’s that same lack of depth however, that I find problematic. I mentioned earlier it’s a problem for Femke Bol as she attempts to dethrone Sydney. It’s also a problem for her teammate Lieke Klaver in her pursuit of an open 400m medal! In order for the Netherlands to have a shot at a mixed relay medal, Klaver will also have to compete. Putting a couple of 400s on her legs before the actual 400m begins. The same will happen for Poland’s Natalia Kaczmarek. Ireland’s Rhasidat Adeleke and Charlene Maudsley. And the Dominican Republic’s Marileidy Paulino. All of whom have legitimate shots at 400m medals – as well as superior times. Each will begin the open 400m with a pair of 400s already on their legs. As will several 400 hurdlers. By the time the 4×4 comes around, these women could already have as many as five 400s in their legs. Seems almost like a punishment! If nothing else, it will be difficult to give ones absolute best in their individual events. Not to mention how they will be come the final event of the meet. It will hurt to be a quartermiler in Paris, if you run for a smaller nation. I’m not sure that this has been a positive addition to the sport. As a matter of fact, I see it as a negative.
Similarly, one might be able to say the same about World Athletics “ranking system”. Historically qualifying for the Olympics and World Championships has been simple. There are qualifying standards in each event, and if you reach them you’re eligible to compete in the meet. Pending of course, going through qualifying criteria that countries use to select their teams. Recently World Athletics developed a complicated system designed to create a second method to qualify for these meets, while simultaneously making qualification by marks more difficult. Several countries have chosen NOT to send athletes to the Olympics that qualified “on points” as they don’t feel they will be competitive enough! With European leader Great Britain chief among them. I intend to discuss this further post Games, but clearly there are others that see this “system” as inferior to the traditional “reaching a standard mark” method.
At the end of the day however, the Olympic Games are known for their outstanding results and there are many athletes in track and field that are capable of just that. In addition to those I’ve already mentioned, there are several others that will be in attendance. Mondo Duplantis (SWE) is one of the sport’s most dominant athletes. Being nearly unbeatable and with several WRs to his name. I expect him to take another WR attempt in Paris. Grant Holloway (USA) is nearly as dominant in the 110H. His best of 12.81 is only one hundredth of a second off the WR. His 12.86 at the Trials indicates that he could be ready for faster in Paris. Ukrainian high jumper Yaroslava Mahuchikh, just broke the WR with a stunning 2.10m clearance in Paris. Breaking a record that had stood since 1987! Faith Kipyegon (KEN) also broke a WR in Paris. Running 3:49.04 in the 1500m to break her own year old record. Earlier this summer, discus thrower Mykolas Alekna (LTU) broke the WR which had existed since 1986, with his 74.35m bomb. And shot putter Ryan Crouser (USA) is always a threat to break his own WR of 23.56m.
The bottom line is that as we begin the Paris Games, some of the most outstanding athletes the sport has ever seen will be entering Olympic stadium. It’s my belief that we will see performances on the level of the Mexico City games of 1968. A meet that featured several world records, Olympic records, and national records. So get your snacks and drinks ready, because you won’t want to miss any of this!
Tags: Adeleke, Bol, Kaczmarek, Klaver, Lyles, Mahuchikh, Maudsley, McLaughlin