It’s about a week after Christmas. Two days before the New Year. Which means we’re about to get more track and field! It’s only been a few months, but Paris seems so far away. Of course, indoors is a tad different. Half the track size. Shortened straight away races. But for true fans of the sport, we’re looking forward to the journey to Tokyo and the World outdoor championships.
While I’m looking forward to literally every event to see if we can get anything close to the full excellence of Paris, I’m really looking forward to the men’s 100m. Always one of the most anticipated events of any competition, the Paris final was the closest and deepest Olympic final in history! I’m curious to find out who repeats as finalists in Tokyo, and who breaks thru to the party! The upcoming indoor season, will give a partial picture of what to expect in Tokyo, as several potential contenders run the 60m indoors. At the end of the day however, nothing truly compares to the 100m dash. Yes, the 60m is exciting. And yes, there will be an indoor world championships, with a 60m final that will also be exciting. Regardless of what happens in January, February, and March however, that final down the straight in Tokyo, will be the sprint race of the year that will once again decide the world’s fastest human!
So, with that, here’s my list of the most likely contenders for the title of the World’s Fastest Human in 2025.
Noah Lyles – Noah has gone from “experimenting” with the 100m in 2021, to winning a world title in 2023, and the Olympic title in 2024! As a result, he starts the year as a slight favorite (IMHO) to win this year’s title in Tokyo. I say slight, as this event has gotten very strong, and very deep over the past few seasons. So much so that two Olympic gold medalists, and three World Champions are currently competing and in prime age! Which doesn’t include the U20 world record holder. A group so strong that the Olympics was won by only .005. Noah won that race, and has a knack for finding his way to the line ahead of his foes. However, Paris was too close to say he’s “clearly” the favorite.
Fred Kerley – Simply put, don’t bet against Fred. He’s talented, has attitude, and shows up when he needs to! Period. Given the current landscape,I expect to see Fred back under 9.80 this year. If for no other reason than that’s what he’ll need to be in the mix. He’s with a brand that he’s comfortable with, which seems to be huge for him. He trains like Rocky, and competes like he really doesn’t care about anyone else. So everyone else should be on notice. If Fred showed up healthy everyone is in trouble.
Christian Coleman – This is a huge year for Christian. In 2019, this looked like his event to rule. A forced vacation over missed tests changed that. Since his return, he’s been a hair off. In this event however, a hair is all it takes to go from gold to off the podium. Watching him, his problem is technical, and fixable. If he fixes it, he could be leading things once again. If he doesn’t, he could have trouble making this year’s team. This is the US after all. Nothing is ever guaranteed at Nationals.
Lamont Jacobs – I’m not gonna lie, I thought Jacobs was done. A one hit wonder. But he got healthy last year, and was once again in the mix. One of the most technically sound sprinters among the elites, if he’s healthy, he’s shown that he is indeed competitive. Spending the years he’ did in the sprinting desert trying to “come back” made him stronger in my opinion. And the sprinter I saw in Paris had serious resolve. A man that had something to prove. That’s when sprinters are most dangerous! I think we could see him improve upon his best again this year.
Letsile Tebogo – I watched both of his U20 100m title wins. His 9.91 looked ridiculously easy! Last year had to be tough for him as he lost his mother during the season. Yet he was a finalist in the 100m in Paris and won the 200m. Making improvement in tough circumstances. The upcoming season should be “lighter” for this young man. Allowing him to simply run and compete. Progress isn’t always linear, but I think we’ll see an even faster Letsile in 2025. That should be a scary thought for everyone on the track!
Kishane Thompson – One of the smoothest, most relaxed looking sprinters we’ve seen in a while. Natural movements similar to previous Jamaican sprinter, Asafa Powell. Clearly fast, and competitive, the question seems to be, can he maintain good health? Health was an issue in 2023, and we only got a three meet sample size in 2024. A great sample (9.77, 9.91, 9.79), but he looks more like Jacobs than Lyles at the moment. IF, he’s healthy this year. He’s certainly in contention, because I don’t think we’ve seen his best yet. However, if can be a big little word.
Oblique Seville – Oblique is the Jamaican version of Christian Coleman. You know he’s always going to be out there at 60m. The question is, can he hang on? He will be hard to keep out of the Tokyo final. As I don’t see three Jamaicans keeping him off that team. And he has a penchant for running fast in the semis. The issue for Oblique is what he does after he gets in the final. Can he maintain his composure against the rush that he and everyone else knows is coming after 70m? That will determine his fate!
Akeem Blake – Blake has become Jamaica’s #3 sprinter in my opinion. He’s an excellent starter, who if he hits the race right, could sneak into the final. Given the current depth of this event, he’ll have to be perfect in his execution to do so. This event is dominated by strong finishers. I’m not sure we’ll get more than two super starters into the final. That is Blake’s challenge, being one of them.
Ferdinand Omanyala – He’s mentioned because he will run something fast in Nairobi and be among the world’s leaders on the clock. However. He has yet to prove he can run similarly outside of Kenya. Until he does, it’s hard for me to take him seriously as a true contender. Though his pre race, pretend coin flip ritual is mildly entertaining. He will need more finish than flip in Tokyo.
Zharnel Hughes – The British record holder, Hughes has been up and down based on his health. Healthy in 2023, he set his national record, then finished third in Budapest. Then found himself injured in 2024. Missing Paris. Meanwhile the event took another step forward. If he has any hope of being in the Tokyo final, he must be healthy and improve once again. As I can see it taking 9.85 to make the final.
Potential Breakthroughs – One thing that we can be sure of with this event, is that someone “new” will break through. New could mean, never heard from before. Or it could mean, someone that finally stepped across the threshold after being on the edge. The following are three sprinters that I think fit the latter description. All three share similar attributes. Tall, fluid sprinters, with previous injury issues.
Terrence Jones – This Bahamian sprinter is a solid 6.45 over 60m. Making him very dangerous early race. Competing for Texas Tech may have put too much early season strain on his muscles. As injury has hampered his development in spite of running 9.91.
Benjamin Richardson – This South African is still very raw. Yet, with a best of 9.86 is just off of Akani Simbine’s national record. He’s been in steady improvement up to the present. This coming season could see that move to consistent, elite status. Of the three, he’s my favorite to break thru.
Godson Oghenebrume – This Nigerian may be the most dangerous of the group. I think his NCAA career may have hampered his ability’s in late season competition. He could blossom now, with more potential rest early.
These are the men that are most likely looking at spots in the Tokyo 100m final. Since there are only three spots per country (a situation that needs to be changed in my opinion), I’ve left out several Americans that could potentially make the team. Listing only the three that I believe will make the squad. No shade to Kenny Bednarek, Courtney Lindsey or others. I will also say that there are several Nigerian sprinters that could potentially break through, along with others on the African continent. AND lots of young artists beginning to emerge in central and south America. As many youngsters are beginning to find their way into that territory around and under 10.00! All of which makes the 100m very exciting. Finally, I must mention Trayvon Bromell. As talented as any sprinter in the world, he’s twice man global finals and medaled. He’s coming off of injury for the second time in his career. The first took him years to get back. This time he’s posted on social media that he’s ready to compete for a world indoor title. IF (that word again) he’s at that level indoors, it will change the 100m outdoors. So stay tuned.
I will give my Tokyo preview right after national championships have been completed in August. Good luck to them all.