Ok, between the indoor season and the last few meets, we’ve seen most of the world’s top sprinters on the track. So, with some 80 days until the start of the London Games, it’s about time to start looking at the relays. Of course the race that will draw the most attention will be the men’s 4×1, because of names like Bolt, Gay, Blake, Lemaitre, and others – and that means a discussion of the squads for the United States and Jamaica. There’s always the chance, a la Great Britain in 2004, that someone else can sneak in for the gold or silver, but barring catastrophe this is where the gold will be decided. So the question for today is: how do these sprint behemoths shape up with less than three months to go?

Well we saw three fourths of the Jamaican squad on display this past weekend in Kingston – Usain Bolt, Yohan Blake and Michael Frater – and they looked good. A couple of weekends ago we saw Nesta Carter leading off the team that ran at Penn. Together that foursome won in Daegu and set the current WR, and right now all look healthy and ready for London.

Of course if all of Jamaica’s top sprinters are healthy come London, they could face another opponent, one that has long plagued the US – politics. Because missing from the above team is Asafa Powell which begs the question: what to do with with the 9.72 sprinter who might be the fastest relay "sub" in history? Somewhat reminiscent of American Rey Robinson (100 co-WR holder) being left off the ’72 team in favor of 200 man Larry Black – a team that went on to take the gold in WR time in Munich.

So with "synergy" and passing being as important as speed in the short relay, the question that Jamaica has to ask itself is: if it ain’t broke do you "fix" it or do you leave it alone? And if you "fix" it – or more appropriately fiddle with it – how do you reshuffle the deck? Who becomes expendable? “Slowest” man Frater who may be your best stick man and in charge of two thirds of your passes – not to mention has been on all of your WR squads? New kid on the block Blake, in deference to your veteran? Or best out of the blocks Carter to trade 9.78 for 9.72? And if you go with Powell do you put him in the spot of the man you replace or do you do a complete reset – i.e. is he anchor only or does he get a new assignment?

And for those who say that it doesn’t matter, review the US moves of 2004, where poor choices doomed a sure thing 4×1. Or the "political" failure of the ’96 US squad. Or the dropped batons of the last three US teams. Because as much success we’ve had in this event, we’ve also created new and inventive ways to muck it up. Which leads to another question: what will this year’s team look like?

Well, I think the answer to that question starts with the status of Tyson Gay – the one sprinter that apparently no one will see until the Trials themselves. IF Tyson is healthy and ready it’s a no brainer for me – you put him on third leg and build from there. I mean what else do you do with a man that runs the turn THAT well? Based on what I’ve seen so far that would make Walter Dix the leadoff; Justin Gatlin or Wallace Spearmon second leg; and Ryan Bailey your anchor. The final decision on second leg (and anchor) being based on performance level at the Trials – because if for some reason Bailey falters (injuries have been a part of his past) you split the stretch duties between Gatlin & Spearmon. And if everyone is up to speed (pun intended) that’s a quality problem – though I might tend to go with experience, which gives Spearmon the edge if only slightly since he’s been on all of our successful squads of the last half decade (sort of our version of Michael Frater).

IF Tyson is not ready/healthy, Plan B (gotta have a Plan B) moves Dix to the third leg and backs Gatlin into leadoff with Spearmon remaining second and Bailey anchor. Key to both plans is the development of Ryan Bailey – who should be able to close extremely well without the blocks in his way. Besides I think legs one through three are capable of leading this thing coming into the anchor in that configuration.

Of course you have to have subs – though personally I’m not sure I like the idea of running with different teams in the rounds and finals. My subs would be there in the event someone actually can’t perform when needed. With that in mind, Mike Rodgers and Trell Kimmons become my key subs – Kimmons as potential leadoff or third leg; Rodgers my utility man who could potentially fill in in either of the four spots if necessary.

Now all of that could change between now and the end of June. There’s plenty of time for someone to rise to the occasion or, heaven forbid, for injury to strike – for the US or Jamaica. After all, it was injury that sidelined Powell last year and inserted Blake into Jamaica’s mix! And both sides have athletes that could potentially break through – Lerone Clarke (JAM), Nickel Ashmeade (JAM), Jeff Demps (US), Mookie Salaam (US), and Curtis Mitchell to name a few – and yes vets like Darvis Patton (US), Ivory Williams (US), and Travis Padgett. But make no mistake, this is a “go big or go home” race, which means there is no room for fringe sprinters – because the 4×1 at the podium level calls for 9.8’s or better!

I will revisit this event once the Trials are done and the players on both sides become more clear, as we’re definitely not close to a final squad for the US and I’m not sure the Jamaican squad is set in stone yet either. In contrast I think that the women’s 4×1 teams for both the US and Jamaica are already pretty well defined personnel wise as the Penn squads for both are pretty close to what I think we will see in London. The Trials will clarify that.

As for the 4×4 squads, the Trials will determine those teams simply based on who’s running best at the time. The sprint relays require four different kind of legs. The 4×4 just requires you run the distance fast. So the four fastest quarter milers that each team can field will take to the track – clean and neat. So once the pools are set, then we can discuss race strategy and how each country will/should position it’s people.

So it’s really the men’s 4×1’s that are “up in the air” right now – Jamaica because of “overflow”; the US because of a bit of uncertainty. Above are what I see as the “pre-Trials” issues/questions. We should get clarity in about 6 weeks – and then the real fun will begin.