All of the preliminary events have been completed, so all that’s left now is the crowning of World champions, which will begin in just over a week. While I wanted to start discussing events sooner, I waited until official roosters were available, and unfortunately those only recently dropped. Leaving little time for Predictions. However, there are two track events that grab everyone’s imaginations, the 100m and 1500m. So, I’m going to take a look at these before competition begins, starting with both the men and women’s 100m. Two races that have been central to this season from the start, and which should both produce great results and drama in Tokyo.

Let’s begin with the men, primarily because this has roots back to Paris as last year’s gold and silver medalists, Noah Lyles and Kishane Thompson, are back and in the middle of the conversation. Once again, Kishane is leading the world on the clock having run 9.75 earlier in the year. On the flip side, Noah began his season much later and as he tends to do, is once again “working his way” towards the championship. Meaning that rather than begin running fast, he’s been “improving” from race to race. Noah and Kishane raced in Silesia with Thompson winning and Lyles closing ground over the second half of the race – the same race model that defeated Thompson in Paris. Last year’s bronze medalist, Fred Kerley, did not compete at US Trials and will therefore not figure into this year’s race. Two other finalists from Paris have been quite visible however, Kenny Bednarek and Oblique Seville. Kenny being, “The Man”, early in the year during Grand Slam Track, winning all three of his races over 100m and clocking a PB 9.79. Oblique has been more visible recently, running 9.82, before defeating Noah in the rain of Lausanne in 9.87. Paris finalist, Akani Simbine, looked good early, winning several races, but lately has been, average. Paris 200m champion and 100m finalist, Letsile Tebogo, opened at 400m; shut down; ran a couple of 100’s; shut down; and raced Noah recently over 200m, losing a close race. He’s always shown up in championship situations however, so shouldn’t be discounted. Then there’s Lamont Jacobs. Tokyo Olympic champion, fifth in Paris, and unraced this year, but entered in Tokyo. These are the primary antagonists given their history.

Of course there are those that emerge in any given year on the men’s side and stir things up. TMars McCallum, Courtney Lindsey, Akeem Blake, and Zharnel Hughes all have the foot speed to do that, given that one or more favorite falters. Heading into Worlds the narrative by many is that Oblique is the favorite based on his rainy win in Lausanne. Of course, these are many of the same people that said Kenny was unbeatable after running 9.79. Truth is that the two best “racers” in the field are Thompson and Lyles, and for my money they are the men picking up the first two medals once again. The only question being, what order?

Traditionally, strong finishers do best around the finish line. I say this because in the past several years, 100m fields have been very deep and finishes very close, which means you’d better be good approaching the finish. This favors strong finishers like Lamont Jacobs, Fred Kerley, and Noah Lyles vs great starters like Christian Coleman, and Oblique Seville. With several of last year’s finalists expected to return to this year’s version of the event, I’m predicting a similar finish, which is why my favorite is Noah Lyles. Partially because of history, partially because his coach always has him ready, and in large part because of his top end speed and competitive nature. I’m picking Kishane for the silver, because he too is competitive, but he’s just not as strong around the finish line as Noah. Believe it or not, I’m calling bronze a toss up among the rest of the field. If they are not out front, both Kenny and Oblique are just not as strong in mid and late race. So bronze could go to anyone that sneaks into the final. Though I have a couple of caveats! IF, Seville can nail his start the way he did in Lausanne (something he does once or twice a year) he could bury the field early and outrun the finishers. Similar to Christian Coleman in 2019’s race. Something to watch for. The other being Tebogo. IF he is close at 80m, he could steal it all. Looking like Jacobs in 2021. Now on to the women.

Unlike the men, we have all three Paris medalists returning, though with changing fortunes this year. Gold and bronze medalists, Julien Alfred and Melissa Jefferson Wooden, are back and have been wreaking havoc on the sprint community, the two of them defeating everyone in site! Their one head to head meeting in Eugene, produced a Melissa win (10.75/10.78) INTO a negative 1.5mps wind! since that race, Melissa has run 10.65, 10.66, and 21.84; Julien another negative wind 10.79 and a 21.71. Clearly we’re headed towards something epic in Tokyo when the two once again go head to head. First however, let’s take a look at the supporting cast. Defending champion, Sha’Carri Richardson, will be there, but she’s not the force she was two years ago, or even last year. Many point to an early season injury, but I’m just not seeing the same, “energy” from her that she had in 2023, and entering Tokyo, she has yet to win a race this year. The US is also sending Kayla Whyte and TeeTee Terry (replacing injured Aleia Hobbs), with Whyte running well up to Nationals, but neither athlete being seen since. The other global power, Jamaica, is sending Tina Clayton, Shericka Jackson, and Shelly Ann Fraser Pryce. Though Shelly and Shericka have not been close to previous season’s form. Tina was the winner at nationals and has continued to run best in Europe. As for other contenders, Marie Josee TaLou could have a good meet and possibly sneak into the final. Similarly, a good start in the rounds could put Gina Luckenkemper or Amy Hunt into the final too. Anyone else will just be lucky. That said, how does this podium flush out?

Well, Alfred pulled out of her final Diamond League commitments, with Lausanne reporting that she was injured, Alfred said however, that she was getting ready for Tokyo. Then showed up in Zurich and decimated a field, minus Jefferson, in 10.75. Meanwhile Melissa has simply been dominant in every race she’s run this year. While their head to head was close, Melissa has taken a step forward since, displaying a little more “pop” early race, which I believe could be her separation point in Tokyo. This is where the race gets interesting, as Alfred is a world champion over 60m and has a terrific start. Jefferson however, is more technically efficient, and recently has proven to be .10sec better over the distance. I believe that the 30m to 50m segment of the final will decide the medals – the area where one of these women asserts dominance. Otherwise they separate together and the photo decides the winner. In rouget case, I see Melissa taking this one.

Behind them, there will be a race within the race for the bronze between Clayton and Whyte, with the photo once again determining place.This race will signal the official changing of the guard for both the US and Jamaica. Can Shericka, Shelly, or Sha’Carri break into that top four and possibly onto the podium? Potentially yes, but I’ve not seen anything from either of them that would say that they will. They’ve all been a shell of the dominant sprinters they’ve been in the past. This is the Melissa and “Juju” show now and everyone else is along for the ride!

Both of these races are among the first finals in Tokyo and will establish what I’m anticipating to be a very exciting meet. I date say on par with Paris. Imagine Tokyo ’21 with screaming fans, a few world records, and a couple of breakthroughs. That’s what Tokyo is going to be.