Finally. The indoor season is done and we’re outdoors. We’ve had Penn, Texas, and Florida. The World Relays just ended, and the Diamond League is ready to begin. Time to look at a few questions facing the speed events as we get serious outdoors. So, I’m going to address some questions I’ve seen floating around on the internet, as well as some issues raised at the close of l last year.

Is Botswana now the team to beat in the 4×4 relay?

The answer is no. Botswana is definitely a global power in the event, having run 2:54 in two different seasons. They also pulled off a rare win over the US in Tokyo. The key word in that sentence being “rare”. Some forget that one of Botswana’s 2:54’s was a loss against the United States. The other was a race without the United States. The win was against a squad that did not expect to be competing, at least the anchor didn’t. Botswana is fast. The US is fast and deep. Botswana is a strong 1b, but the US is still 1a until Botswana, or anyone else can repeat victories against the US. Beijing and LA will tell that story.

Is Elaine Thompson Herah back?

It sure looks like that could be a strong possibility. She’s run 10.92 early to go with a sizzling 4×1 anchor at the World’s Relays. She’s looked solid, and shown that acceleration gear that’s served her well in the past. With Elaine however, the question isn’t can she run fast, it’s will she stay healthy. There are already questions about her health after that relay anchor. We will have to see just how this season plays out before we can truly say that Elaine is back. So, the complete answer to the question will be revealed if she is still able to compete at the END of the season.

Is Jordan Anthony the next top American?

Maybe. He certainly looks like it early.. Jordan is fast, fluid, and fearless. The kind of sprinter that has the potential to dominate for years, and he’s paired with Noah Lyles who himself has proven to be that same type of athlete. Iron sharpens iron. I believe that Anthony’s 60m title this year was just the beginning. However. The current group of high school sprinters is hot on his tail! Tate Taylor, and Dillon Mitchell. Lost years Maurice Gleaton. These youngsters have the potential to challenge. So Anthony must stay sharp if he wants to be him.

Will Allyson Felix be a threat?

Allyson recently announced that she is coming out of retirement to try to make the ’28 Olympic team. A nice gesture, but things have changed dramatically since she last strapped up her spikes. Several women can run under 22 in the 200m, and you must run 48 to be in contention globally in the 400m. Both mean it will be very difficult for Allyson to contend now. Her best shot, would be a relay spot, which means making the final in the 400m at the Trials. She would need to run 50 point at age 41. Not likely to be honest.

Are either the men’s or women’s 400m WRs under threat?

My short answer is, maybe. Naser, Paulino, and Sydney had the best ever race last year, with both Sydney and Paulino running 47s. With Sydney out til potentially ’28, I’m not sure that Naser is strong enough to push Paulino the same way. We may see 47 again soon, but in afraid that under 47.60 might be a stretch.

I do believe however, that the men have the horses to make a run given the right individuals and conditions. Pillay, Tebogo, Kebinatshibi, Nene, and whoever is hot in the moment could push the pace sufficiently. This event and the 4×4 have record potential.

Are either of the men’s or women’s 800m WRs under threat?

Again my short answer is, maybe. Everyone is excited by how “easily” Keely Hodgkinson looked running 1:54.61 last year. Yet she was only third in Tokyo. That next 1.5 seconds will not be as easy as it might appear, and she doesn’t have anyone to run there with her unless Femke really adjusts to the event. Another complete conversation.

The men are similar to how they are in the 400m. They have the horses to push the pace, and they have a runner willing to do the work in Wanyonyi! As difficult as 1:40.92 is, there are half a dozen men running 1:41, so the potential here is great.

Is Melissa Jefferson Wooden the new dominant force?

I’m going to say, yes. She has the most complete race model since the days when Elaine Thompson was healthy. She’s come up through the ranks by making solid improvement each year, and now is the athlete to beat in both short sprints. I’m also going to say that it’s going to be a difficult position to maintain. She’s got Julien Alfred breathing down her neck

Who is the men’s #1 sprinter?

That designation is up for grabs. Noah Lyles has the inside looked like he was headed in that direction, dominating the 200m, then winning a World and Olympic title in the 100m. Unfortunately he once again finished third in the deuce at the Games. Then finished third at Worlds in the 100m. Ironically, Noah has only three losses in the 200m as a pro, it’s just that two have been in the Olympics. No one else can become THE dominant sprinter until they can defeat Noah in the 200m consistently. So we may not have a dominant sprinter for a while. Especially since the majority of the 100m sprinters do not run the 200m! The only top men consistently running both the 100m & 200m are Noah, Letsile Tebogo, and Kenny Bednarek. Unfortunately we get no appearances in the 200m by Jamaicans Kishane Thompson or Oblique Seville, as the men seem to be mote focused on single event excellence than the women. In short, I don’t think we’re going to have a dominant doubler on the men’s side.

We are entering that part of the season where things get very fast, very quickly. The Diamond League begins in a week, and in a year without a global championship, that means that we’ll see a lot more elite athletes competing. The Diamond League is where the money is, and most athletes follow the money. So, on that note, here are a few athletes that I’m looking forward to seeing over the next month or so, before National titles are on the line.

Femke Bol – I want to see how her transition to the 800m is coming along.
Noah Lyles – I’m more interested in his 200m than his 100m. Is he still a threat to the WR?
Michael Norman – Now that he’s healthy, is he still THAT guy?
Marileidy Paulino – How fast will she run this year, now that she has felt 47?
Jordan Anthony – I need to see him three or four meets against the best. Is he him?
Women’s 400H – Who takes over?
Ja’Kobe Tharp or Cordell Tinch – Who emerges in Grant’s absence?
Letsile Tebogo – What does he run? He is Botswana’s Femke Bol, the leader of the insurgence!
Collen Kebinatshibi – Will he challenge the WR?

Final thought. The 400m seems to be the event that has everyone talking right now, and for good reason. One thing that I think everyone should remember, the 400m takes a serious toll on athletes. Historically, many of the athletes that ran under 44sec broke down from the stress. Steve Lewis, Quincy Watts, and Danny Everett in the 80’s and 90’s. More recently Steven Gardener, Michael Norman, Champion Allison, and Quincy Hall. We’ll see how well the current group if quartermilers hold up.

Tags: Anthony, Jefferson, Kebinatshibi, Paulino, Tebogo