After a week that left me wondering what the heck is going on, it’s time to start to attempt to look at some of the National Trials that are coming up to try and gauge what Daegu is going to look like. And after Des Moines and New York that may not be easy at all!

I’ve already talked in depth about what happened in Des Moines – a lot of bad weather and a lot of Texas A&M in the end. The college kids put forth some sterling efforts, but there was a lot of “weirdness” going on – especially for athletes considered favorites. I mean, would you have bet that even one of the following occurrences would have happened? 

• Jeff Demps didn’t qualify for the 100 final.
• Neither did Jeneba Tarmoh who didn’t even get to start her semi after getting dq’d for a false start.
• Omo Osaghe only cleared one hurdle before crashing out in the final.
• Jordan Hasay appeared tired. I’ve watched her since she was a high school freshman and she’s never looked tired.
• Kirani James was supposed to win going away, but instead found three others within .08 at the line! He won by mere thousandths over Gil Roberts who was then dq’d for a lane violation! (Talk about bad luck for Texas Tech – the home of both Roberts and Osaghe.)
• Bad Luck, the song by Harold Melvin and the Blue Notes, must have been the theme music for Florida this past weekend as not only did Jeff Demps (defending champion) not make the 100 final, but the 4×1 didn’t finish the race, Christian Taylor didn’t make the LJ final, Terrell Wilks didn’t make the 200 final (but finished 5th in the 100) yet they still finished 2 points away from the team title – the third year in a row that they were 2 points or less away from the trophy!
• Florida State, after being on a roll all meet, entered the final event in the lead for the team championship but WITHOUT a team in the relay even though they have a 4×4 squad that has run 3:02.41 this season! Had they been in the race they would have been guaranteed the one point they needed to hold off Texas A&M!

Was there something in the air other than lightning and rain? Then there was New York – same day different time zone – and there was weirdness there too!

• Rain and headwinds were once again the rule of the meet – in June.
• Jeremy Wariner, who earlier this season appeared to be headed back to the zone of “You Can’t Catch Me” found himself struggling to win over Germaine Gonzales and Rondell Bartholomew by .03 & .04 – and Bartholomew seriously ran him down!
• Half miler Kenia Sinclair put a beat down on a 1500 meter field that included Gelete Burka, Jenny Simpson, Shannon Rowbury and Sally Kipyego.
• Half miler Abubaker Kaki, fresh off a SB in Oslo, just pulled up while running the 800. No jostle, no acceleration, just went down around the first turn and stayed down while the others circled the track. He was still there when they came back to mount their finishes.
• Lolo Jones, who looked like she was ready to take the hurdles and run away and hide just two seasons ago, was beaten yet again – this time into 4th place – as she looked hesitant and unsure of herself.
• Allyson Felix won the deuce (her pet event) with what finally looked like a decent turn for her as she outran speed demon Carmelita Jeter in the first 100, yet found Bianca Knight closing on her like a freight train in the final 50 meters as Felix won by only .04.
• The men’s 100 saw THREE men dq’d (one at a time) before they finally got the race off. Then Tyson Gay finds himself down some 3 to 4 meters on a blazing Steve Mullings only to come back and lose on the photo. And if having three athletes thrown out in the same race isn’t weird enough, in spite of that huge discrepancy at the start Gay and Mullings had the exact same reaction time (.154)!

And that’s just what happened this past weekend! I haven’t even mentioned Bolt being only 9.91 & 19.86 and it’s mid June. Or Sanya Richards not being able to get out of third gear.Or the cooling off of L.J. Van Zyl after a blistering early spring. The bottom line is this season has been CRAZY, and nearly unpredictable. One thing is clear, there is going to be change this year. I’m expecting some old names to just not make it, and some new names to make some serious inroads towards the medal stand. I just have to figure out who – that’s going to be the hard part.

So I’m going to spend the next couple of weeks trying to handicap our nationals as well as a few events at some other nationals. Really with the hope of trying to get a bead on Daegu – which I think may end up being the most unpredictable major in quite some time.

I want to start by taking a look at the speed events, which have been experiencing a lot of volatility since Berlin. Below is a chart I’ve started that I’m calling Speed Watch. Basically a snapshot of what’s going on in the speed events. Over the next week I hope to take these names and put them into a meaningful Preview of the U.S. and Jamaican Trials – and eventually the World Championships, which is why you will see a few names on here already that are separate from the two major powers. I will also take a look at the middle distances this week, as we have had a lot of movement there as well.

Speed Watch