It’s going to be a busy week and there will be lots to talk about. We’ve got the Boston Marathon going off a week from yesterday, and I want to take a look at the field and that course – I mean how many WINDY distance races can you find? The Mt SAC Relays are in a week and it looks like they are going to have some outstanding athletes in attendance. There’re Several relay meets this week including Sea Ray, the Big West Challenge, Seminole Invitational, Spec Towns, the Jesse Owens Classic and the Rafer Johnson/JJK Invitational. And after the latest false start fiasco with young Marvin Bracy at the Florida Relays, it may be time to talk about the one and done false start rule again – what does it accomplish.
But first I promised my early favorites for the US Olympic Trials. VERY early favorites, because as we know a lot is going to happen between now and then – and we haven’t even seen most of the top athletes yet. Of course that’s sort of the fun in trying to pick favorites this early – to see how well they perform in the lead up to the Trials and to watch new names enter the picture. Besides, as long as I make a few alterations here and there, I’m not stuck with them until the last list before the gun goes off! So why not put it out there?
I figure after Penn it might need a little tweaking. Then probably after the New York leg of the Diamond League nail it down and make it a full on three slot prediction! So I’m just going to put some names out there with a little bit of commentary.
Early US Trials Favorites – Men
| 100 | Tyson Gay | Health always the key |
| 200 | Wallace Spearmon | With no Tyson, and Dix unseen |
| 400 | LaShawn Merritt | WL last year in fraction of season |
| 800 | Nick Symmonds | Until youth steps up |
| 1500 | Leo Manzano | No Lagat (?) and Wheating unseen |
| 5000 | Bernard Lagat | Take it to the bank |
| 10000 | Galan Rupp | Who else, Solinsky? |
| 3000 St | Dan Huling | My best guess |
| 110H | David Oliver | This is his house |
| 400H | Bershawn Jackson | Age before beauty right now |
| PV | Brad Walker | A better meet than 2011 |
| HJ | Jesse Williams | He’s da Man |
| LJ | Dwight Phillips | Learned my lesson in Daegu |
| TJ | Will Claye | I flipped a coin |
| Shot | Ryan Whiting | Time for a change |
| Disc | Jarred Rome | Vet power |
| Ham | Kibwe Johnson | Best we have |
| Jav | Cyrus Hostetler | Won Rho Sham Bo |
| Dec | Tre Hardee | Better in all 10 |
Early US Trials Favorites – Women
| 100 | Carmelita Jeter | Olympic tune up! |
| 200 | Allyson Felix | This is a money meet |
| 400 | Sanya Richards | Sheeeee’s baaaaccckkkk |
| 800 | Alysia Montano | Most consistent |
| 1500 | Morgan Uceny | Best tactics |
| 5000 | Molly Huddle | On a roll |
| 10000 | Shalane Flanagan | Who else? |
| 3000 St | Bridget Francek | Oregon trained |
| 100H | Dawn Harper | Most consistent |
| 400H | Lashinda Demus | No one close |
| PV | Jenn Suhr | Best in field |
| HJ | Chaunte Lowe | She’s back too |
| LJ | Brittney Reese | Just an athlete |
| TJ | Amanda Smock | She likes it here |
| Shot | Jill Camarena Williams | Olympic tune up? |
| Disc | Stephanie Brown Trafton | Been here before |
| Ham | Amber Cambell | Best we have |
| Jav | Kara Patterson | A medalist in London? |
| Hep | Ryann Krais | Have to have one upset special |
Tags: Prediction
Men
20km RW – Trevor Barron – Pretty much untouchable
Women
20km RW – Maria Michta – Class of the field if healthy
Thank you .. Didn’t feel qualified to comment .. Still trying to get familiar with the walks .. I will be watching their Trials very closely ..
M 1,500 – what, you didn’t watch Centrowitz win bronze at Daegu?
Smile .. I did .. And he improved a lot last year .. But I don’t think he can out kick a Wheating or Manzano .. Not if they are healthy .. He may surprise me – and that would be just fine .. But until I see more, I don’t consider him the favorite ..
Eaton is so strong in non-throw events he’ll win decathlon w/o shining in them.
He definitely has that kind of potential .. But Hardee is improving in the track events and is strong in the field .. And there’s always the spectre of a healthy Bryan Clay .. At some point Eaton is going to have to improve his throws .. Plus a bad throw event and it’s hard to come back if a Hardee or Clay is solid throughout ..
I won’t argue with you until after Mt Sac. If Eaton runs a 10.2 hundred, a 13.3 hurdle, a 26’6 LJ and a discus PR, then I’ll come back at you.