The CHill Zone of T&F: Conway's View From the Finish Line

Olympic Predictions – London 2012

Jul 21st, 2012
11:29 am PDT

D Rudisha FullOK, it’s time to do this. I’ve procrastinated long enough. I kept hoping that the “next meet” would clear things up, but even Monaco yesterday just made things harder. As a matter of fact you will see some changes even from my US medal hopes of a couple of days ago – things are that fluid in my opinion.

Clearly this is going to be a meet with a lot of potential “upsets”, and I would expect that we will see a few new stars emerge. Frankly that’s a good thing, because the sport can never have enough stars – if only we would learn to maximize the marketing potential of ALL of them. Besides upsets keep things exciting, it’s one of the reasons I enjoy “March Madness” so much – upsets compel you to keep watching.

With that, here is my “bracket” for the Olympic Games. I’ve done my best to factor in “injuries”; athletes competing at less than their best; and frankly athletes stepping up to the occasion. I’m sure there are disagreements as every athlete/country has it’s fan base. That’s why they compete – to see how it turns out.


Men’s Olympic Medal Predictions





100 Tyson Gay Yohan Blake Justin Gatlin
200 Yohan Blake Wallace Spearmon Christophe Lemaitre
400 LaShawn Merritt Kirani James Tony McQuay
800 David Rudisha Nigel Amos Duane Solomon
1500 Asbel Kiprop Silas Kiplagat Andrew Wheating
5000 Isiah Koech Bernard Lagat Dejen Gebremeskel
10000 Mo Farah Tariku Bekele Galen Rupp
Mar Emmanuel Mutai Ayele Abshero Abel Kirui
3000st Brimin Kipruto Ezekiel Kemboi Paul Koech
110H Aries Merritt Liu Xiang Jason Richardson
400H Javier Culson Angelo Taylor Dai Greene
4×1 United States Trinidad Jamaica
4×4 United States Bahamas Trinidad
HJ Jesse Williams Ivan Ukhov Andrei Silnov
PV Renaud Lavillenie Malte Mohr Brad Walker
LJ Mitchell Watt Will Claye Marquis Goodwin
TJ Christian Taylor Will Claye Fabrizio Donato
SP Christian Cantwell Reese Hoffa David Storl
DT Robert Harting Virgilius Alekna Gerd Kanter
HT Ivan Tikhon Krisztian Pars Sergey Litvinov
JT Vitezslav Vesely Vadims Vasilevskis Oleksander Pyatnytsya
Dec Ashton Eaton Trey Harrdee Leonel Suarez
20K Walk Alex Schwazer Wang Zhen Chen Ding
50K Walk Sergey Kirdyapkin Igor Yerokin Jared Tallent


Women’s Olympic Medal Predictions





100 Carmelita Jeter Blessing Okagbare Shelly Ann Fraser
200 Allyson Felix Carmelita Jeter Veronica C-Brown
400 Sanya R-Ross Christine Ohuruogu Antonina Krivoshapka
800 Pamela Jelimo Mariya Savinova Fantu Magiso
1500 Morgan Uceny Maryam Jamal Genzebe Dibaba
5000 Vivian Cheruiyot Meseret Defar Sally Kipyego
10000 Tirunesh Dibaba Florence Kiplagat Beylanesh Olijira
Mar Mary Keitany Aselefech Mergia Tiki Gelana
3000st Milcah Chemos Yuliya Zarapova Ancuta Bobocel
100H Sally Pearson Dawn Harper Kelli Wells
400H Lashinda Demus Natalya Antyukh Zuzana Hejnova
4×1 United States Jamaica Germany
4×4 United States Russia Jamaica
HJ Chaunte Lowe Anna Chicherova Svetlana Shkolina
PV Fabiana Murer Jenn Suhr Silke Spiegelberg
LJ Brittney Reese Nastassia Ivanova Anna Nazarova
TJ Olha Saladuha Olga Rypakova Caterina Ibarguen
SP Nadzya Ostapchuk Valerie Adams Jill C-Williams
DT Nadine Muller Darya Pishchalnikova Stephanie B-Trafton
HT Betty Heidler Tatyana Lysenko Aksana Menkova
JT Mariya Abakumova Barboa Spotakova Christina Obergfoll
Hep Jessica Ennis Tatyana Chernova Kristina Savitskaya
20K Walk Elmira Alembekova Liu Hong Yelena Lashmanova

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24 Responses to “Olympic Predictions – London 2012”

  1. Anderson says:

    Just curious if you did this before or after Monaco?

  2. Brandon says:

    How can you have the Jamaican men behind Trinidad?

    • CHill says:

      Because at this point Jamaica is not 100% .. And Trinidad passes well ..

      • Anderson says:

        I think your underestimating how the Jamaicans will perform. Even though Blot and Powell are “injured” their relay would probably still about even with the USA. unless a baton is dropped, Trinidad will not beat either team.

        • CHill says:

          Then again perhaps you overestimate their injured abilities .. And you seem to base everything on foot speed .. Trinidad is one of the better passing squads .. I like their chances against a less than optimal Jamaican squad .. Of course you also said Gay could not and would not run the turn this year .. 😉

          I trust my own thoughts .. I have a pretty good knowledge of the sport and good resourses .. And a lot of history .. I’ll go with that ..

  3. Teddy says:

    I am trying to find the logic in some of your selections and it does appeared at best skewed… Just curious as to whether you intend to explain some of your selections.

    • CHill says:

      Ask away … There are instances where if I can find a way to insert an American I obviously have .. But not solely to say “American” .. Just giving the benefit of the doubt in some cases .. But I do have rationale for my choices .. Looking at your ip and knowing where you post I’m sure you have questions regarding some Jamaica v US decisions .. Ask away …

      • Teddy says:

        I perused the list again and noticed that was the case, that you’re padding in US athletes where ever you can. Even with that said though I don’t get how you have Uceny for gold in the 1500 above Dibaba, Jamal and Aregawi. In the women’s sprints I don’t see Jeter doubling successfully for a gold and a silver in the 100 and 200 respectively. Walker’s absence from the 400mH medalists is erroneous at best, she deserves to be up there just as much as Demus. Spotokova in the women’s Jav has been the most consistent thrower this season. No Perkovic in the Discus Throw?

        Men’s 100m, 200m and 400m all are questionable. No Bolt in either the 100 or the 200… Taking Spearman’s last run he is far from medal worthy right now. Merritt is questionable… No mention of at least one of the Borlee twins…. In the 800, Rudisha is a lock but I find it hard to believe that the 2nd and 3rd place finishes will be nothing but Africans (Solomon isn’t making it). I don’t see how Wheating appeared in the 1500m. Keoch 3rd? Nope, I don’t see it… silver at worse. The 4×100 male…. a bit over reaching i think

        • CHill says:

          Not padding Teddy, but when I think we have a legitimate shot I’ve given them the nod ..

          I’ve addressed the sprints in detail in two different posts, one I just put up … We’ll see how right I end up being .. I plan to do the other disciplines but will answer some questions because I said I would ..

          Women’s 1500 is simple .. The race won’t be a sub 4:00 fest – Majors almost never are .. This will come down to who races best not who has the fastest times .. In my estimation the best/smartest racers are Jamal and Uceny – that’s what they do .. Jamal trumped Uceny in their last race, but Uceny looked leg heavy in the stretch – a sign of training through .. We’ll see what happens ..

          Walker has not run well this year and others have … She will be in the final … And in my mind around 4 or 5 … But some are on a roll right now and she will have to stop them ..

          If you look at who is going to actually be in London in the 800 many top Africans will not – only three per nation rule and some interesting choices by some federations … That leaves Solomon squarely in the mix and improving every race … I like his chances …

          Wheating is probably my biggest stretch of all my predictions … I’m thinking this race goes around 3:34ish and that’s in his realm of competition .. I think hunger will keep him close, and those long legs are similar to Kiprops – they eat up lots of ground in a hurry … But like I said my biggest stretch ..

          • Teddy says:

            I disagree on all the points you have raised thus far… But all this is a guessing game so within a few weeks we will see how correct you are. I haven’t seen you made any mention on your Keoch, Spotokova or Perkovich selections though….

          • CHill says:

            Now Teddy we both knew you weren’t going to agree … Nothing I said fit the outcomes that you desire .. You bleed green, black and yellow … I simply responded because I promised to give you my point of view …

            Koech is over raced in my opinion … At least compared to his compatriots … My gut says we see Kiputo run another fantastic race a la Monaco last year ..

            I’m a big Spotakova fan, but if you go back and look she has not thrown well since New York – wins aside – and Abakumova is a beast …

            Perkovic has the one big throw but no consistency … Very weak since …

  4. Adam says:

    Would you be shocked if GAy and GAtlin took Gold and Silver?

    • CHill says:

      Yes I would actually … Gatlin is running nearly flawless races … I do think he can dip under 9.80, but I’m not sure his turnover rate can get him to 9.70 – 9.74 which is where I think gold and silver will be .. I do think he can go 9.77ish, which I think will get bronze ..

      • Adam says:

        Im thinking He can win Gold or silver because of what i seen when he won in 04, He had a super start and held on for dear life. Im thinking that’s how this OLy final will look. I also feel that losing to Gay in France was the best thing to ever happen to him. He will or should be as we speak be making improvements on his 2nd half of the race so that wont happen again

        • CHill says:

          I do think this final will look a lot like Athens ’04 … Just a question of how far out he can get, because he will need the kind of space he had at Trials to win … And not sure he will get that much room this time …

  5. Hopeton says:

    Implicit in your predictions is that Bolt will not participate in this Olympics particularly in the 200m and the relays.
    Your predictions also give the USA over 40 medals, with every possible break going their way.
    Must say that my high respect for your knowledge and impartiality has been shaken.
    Look forward to your comments after the Games.
    Good luck.

    • CHill says:

      If you read my last two posts I’m not so sure what will happen with Bolt after the 100 … I have a 50/50 shot … We’ll see ..

      I didn’t even count the number of medals, mostly because I know that sh*t will happen … LOL .. You’re right I’m counting on breaks going the right way … We’ll see how many do … I haven’t lost my impartiality, at least I don’t think I have … I think you’ll understand as I explain my thoughts over this week …

  6. bkkang says:

    I personally think you are off 50% mark for your predictions. Come on, upgrade the Olympic 110M record, shouldn’t it be 12.91 sec (MR) by great Liu at Athen Games and not Allen Johnson 12.96 sec at Atlanta 1996. Liu’s 12.88 was 8 steps hurdling and now he is master of 7 steps of which is 0.05 to 0.1 sec faster than before. Merrit’s 12.93 is not good enough for gold. Remember Dom Arnold 12.90 sec at Lausanne wasn’t good enough! Bolt will be there at top podium and Sally Pearson might trip at last hurdle!

    • CHill says:

      I had taken the Records from another list and you are right the 110H was an error .. I should have known as Liu is one of my favorites – go back and read what I’ve written about him … That said, his removal from the London final was not good … And Merritt is running as well as anyone has in this event right now … He also beat Liu for the indoor title … Liu is the only hurdler IMHO that can come from behind to beat Merritt, and my saying Merritt will win doesn’t mean by a huge margin … On the contrary, this race could be as close at the men’s 100 should be … But I think it comes down to the final hurdle with Meriit coming off with a slight lead – he is the best starter in the field and puts on a lot of pressure throughout the race … Many point to Merritt’s improvement to the first hurdle this year, but Merritt’s biggest improvement this year may be his composure over the final five hurdles …

      • bkkang says:

        Liu strength is always the final two hurdles and most hurdlers choke when face to face with Liu at this point!
        Liu withdrawal from London final race was tactical! He only wants to feel the battle ground( atmosphere, weather,track conditions…adapted from Sun Tze Arts of War) before the final battle in London.Revealing your full strength before the final act might invite troubles!!

  7. Fortyacres and a mule says:

    LOL! Bolt not winning a medal..LOL. What you smoking in your pipe bro. I know you bleed the RED, WHITE and BLUE but come on..seriously! You are waving the flag on the sprinting event. Wishful thinking no objective analysis. I thought you had some level of objectivity and credibility about you but you just remove all doubt.

    • CHill says:

      Has nothing to do with red white and blue and everything to do with injury .. Unless you’re telling me that the injury is fake an injured Bolt will have a rough time in London as will several others carrying injuries .. To think otherwise shows a lack of objectivity ..

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