The full question is actually duplicate questions. Spurred by the boasting of one Fred Kerley. The questions are. How fast will Fred Kerley run in 2022? And, how fast will the fastest sprinter run in 2022?
Where does this come from? It comes from Kerley saying he is going to break the WR this year. Now, this is as bold a statement as an athlete can make these days. As the current record in the event is 9.58, set by Usain Bolt in 2009 in Berlin Germany. Many say it’s not possible because it was Bolt that set the record. I say no, not because it was Bolt, but because the false start record was different in 2009 than it is today! As a result, Bolt was able to anticipate the gun. Something that sprinters today can’t do! Which, in my humble opinion, is why Bolt himself was not able to get close to it again. Even though he was not yet at his prime age when he set it. He spent the next decade running behind his own results.
That begs the question, can the record be broken? Well, of course it can. It will take soneone with both a tremendous first 50/60 – like Christian Coleman or Trayvon Bromell. AND a tremendous second 50/60 – like Noah Lyles or Erriyon Knighton. Which for me means that someone with the right conditions, on the right day, runs “their” perfect race. A great starter puts together their best ever finish. Or a great finisher happens to nail the start of his life! For example, I think Tyson Gay had a shot if he hadn’t gotten injured and like Bolt had caught the start of his life. Or perhaps Gatlin if he hadn’t missed so much time in his prime.
So, where does that leave us today? Because suddenly we are deeper than ever in the 100 and 200! Over a dozen active sprinters have run under 9.90. Putting them right where Bolt was less than 18 months before his historic run! Not saying they are all capable. Just saying suddenly they could be in range. Let’s start with the man that began the conversation, Fred Kerley.
Fred has emerged as the alpha dog of the current sprint pack. Doing so in 2021 by dropping from the 400 to the 100 and taking silver in the Olympics. Just like that. He finished the year with PB’s of 9.84, 19.76, and 43.64. And the attitude of “beat me if you can”. Recently he’s stated that he’s going to break the WR in Nairobi in early May. Hence today’s discussion. I’ll give him credit. He’s picked perhaps the perfect location for his attempt. A proven fast surface that’s at altitude. But I’m not sure that his race pattern is conducive to a 100 WR. Fred’s 100 is solid. Good start. Nice middle. Strong finish. But to me, lacks that exceptional segment that would put him over the top. That said, I see him dropping his PB to 9.75. Maybe even 9.70. But I believe 9.57 is out of reach. However, Fred has made a liar out of me before.
Will he finish the year as the fastest on the clock? I don’t think so. I believe that will be Christian Coleman. Coleman is currently the events preeminent starter. He’s beginning to round into shape. And he’ll possibly get three cracks at running on Eugene’s fast surface. If the conditions are right for one of those, I think we will see the American Record fall. How fast? I can see Coleman “holding on” for a 9.66. An AR and closer to the WR. Which means I don’t see the WR falling “this” year.
Not even to the current Olympic champion? No. While I like Jacobs. He, like Kerley, is a very solid sprinter without an exceptional segment. Don’t get me wrong. These guys are winners that will win more races than most. They don’t make mistakes and force others to do just that. I can see both winning lots of races and medals. Just not setting records along the way. So is there anyone out there that I see running faster than Coleman in the near future? Sure.
Noah Lyles ran Coleman down from behind when he set his PB of 9.86. He has a Bolt/Gay type finish. Given he catches a good start – and his start is getting better – he could run in record territory. On the other end of the spectrum, Trayvon Bromell is the best starter right now, not named Coleman. And he’s technically more solid than Coleman. On a good day, and he doesn’t decelerate too much after 60, he could be in record territory.
The greatest potential to me right now is Erriyon Knighton. Only 18, he’s already 19.84 in the 200 and recently set his PB of 10.04 in the 100. Both better than Bolt at the same age! Did I mention that he also recently cruised a 45.2 split on a 4×4? His upside is stratospheric right now! While he mostly runs the deuce, I can see him running the 100 more in the future – it pays better. If that happens we’ll see his true potential emerge. Stay tuned.
Also, as I said earlier, there are a lot of guys right now running 9.8’s. Sprinters like Michael Norman, Kenny Bednarek, Andre Degrasse, Marvin Bracy, and Ferdinand Omanyala. Who on the right day. Right track. And the right conditions. Could just nail it! So yes. I do see the record falling – to the right person in the moment. Like when 19.32 fell out of nowhere. Or 29′ 2.5″ fell out of nowhere – and to the “wrong” person. Both records that many said, couldn’t be broken! And dare I mention 46.78. Which went from being “untouchable” to #4 All Time in one race!
This is an exciting time in track and field. The year 2021 was just outstanding across the board. With records dropping all over the place. And all time lists getting severe alterations. Fred has made us look at the 100, but the truth is that record possibilities are everywhere. So I suggest you grab some popcorn and your favorite beverage. And strap in for what I believe is going to be the fastest year ever in the sport.
Tags: Bednarek, Jacobs, Kerley, Knighton, Lyles, Norman, Omanyala