The CHill Zone of T&F: Conway's View From the Finish Line

What Will it Take to Win Gold in Daegu?

Jul 19th, 2011
6:28 am PDT


With just about a month until the big dance, it’s time to start putting together predictions. Phase One is identifying what I think it will take to win gold. As we get closer to the meet – about two weeks out – I will add my thoughts on medalists.

Most teams have been selected, so we have a pretty good idea who will be in attendance. The hard part, however, is that this has not been quite the stellar season that one may have expected. There have been lots of injuries and under performing athletes making it more challenging to predict performances – but I’m going to try.

The biggest item has been the loss of Tyson Gay, but right there with it has been the less than stellar (by his standards) season of Usain Bolt – with almost every sprinter of note sporting some sort of injury/ailment at some point this season. Also under performing have been a bevy of quarter milers lead by Sanya Richards and Jeremy Wariner – and we have yet to see Lashawn Merritt on the track at all. And we’ve seen injury beset half miler Abubaker Kaki, and triple jumper Teddy Tamgho.

Of course not all has been gloomy. The female sprinters have been putting on a show early on with Carmelita Jeter, Veronica Campbell Brown, Marshavet Myers and Kerron Stewart looking quite good – and Allyson Felix setting herself up for a potential 200/400 double. Most of the world’s hurdlers have also looked good, lead by the trio of David Oliver, Liu Xiang and Dayron Robles – who have indulged us with a trio of head to heads already this season. While the women’s long hurdlers are quietly setting up for a potential barnburner in a few weeks. The field events are solid and deep as are the distance events. And the good news is that in most events the principles are on their way to Daegu with their health intact.

So with all that in mind, here is what I think it will take to win gold in South Korea.

Updated Daegu Predictions

Event Men Women
100 9.73 10.68
200 19.52 21.70
400 44.25 49.30
800 1:42.25 1:56.50
1500 3:32.50 3:59.50
Steeple 7:59.00 9:05.00
5000 12:58.00 14:55.00
10000 27:10.00 30:20.00
110H 12.86 12.45
400H 47.60 52.90
4×1 37.25 41.30
4×4 2:56.50 3:18.00
LJ 28’ 0” 23’ 3”
TJ 58’ 6” 48’ 5”
HJ 7’ 8.5” 6’ 7”
PV 19’ 6” 15’ 10”
Shot 72’ 6” 68’ 0”
Discus 228’ 0” 217’ 0”
Hammer 268’ 0” 255’ 0”
Javelin 295’ 0” 225’ 0”
Dec/Hep 8800 pts 6900 pts

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