Here we go. We’re a week away from the “Almost” Big Dance – the US Olympic Trials. And to be honest I’m not sure I have any more clarity today than I did a month ago! There have been some outstanding performances followed by so so performances. Some athletes haven’t seemed to get untracked while some seem to be in near Olympic form. And of course there is always that spectre of injury hanging out there, but even in this age of the internet athletes/camps are keeping a tight lid on the fitness of many athletes.
But here we are and it’s time to make some predictions. Based on what I’ve seen so far I would bet that this meet is going to be smoking as my guess is this is going to be the first time we really see many of these people put it out there. That said, this is my best guess as to how this thing is going to play out. Before I put my predictions out there, here are a few thoughts I have on the Trials going in.
The Sprints
I’ve hedged my bet and put Allyson Felix in the short sprint double – because I feel it plays better to her goal of victory in the deuce in London. I’m also hedging my bet and saying that Sanya Richards Ross doesn’t run the 2/4 double. If she does that 200 could change. I’m thinking that Walter Dix is still not quite where he was at Mt SAC, his last race looking like he may have twinged something. Tyson Gay on the other hand looked ready to roll, but there’s always the question of rounds. And while I ‘m on the fence with Wariner in the 400, he’s a veteran and so is his coach and that gives him a slight edge – but Berry has those young legs! And speaking of young legs, I’ve only seen him once, but I can’t help but feel that Ryan Bailey has SO much potential.
Middle Distances
The women have me all perplexed. Hard for me not to put Anna Pierce in one of the events, but Simpson’s recent 800 PR seems to put her there and Rowbury is a big meet runner. The women’s 800 looks nothing like I thought it would so perhaps we’ll see some majjor improvements in this meet by some athletes. Ditto the men’s 1500 where a tactical race – that’s what I’m expecting – could put over half dozen men into the mix on the final lap.
Distances
On the other hand, while the mid distances are a jumble, the long distances appear ready to follow the script. With the usual cast of characters on both sides ready to “take their rightful places”. I do hold out hope that Deena Kastor is able to pull it together for one final run on the big stage. She’s so close even at this point in her career and I have to give her a shout out in advance.
Hurdles
The men’s hurdles – both 110 & 400 – are not what I expected at the start of the year. The 110’s are easily predictable at this stage and they were supposed to be a crap shoot at this point. Meanwhile age seems to be taking a toll in the long hurdles while youth hasn’t come forward – yet. We will see if both stories change during the Trials. On the women’s side, the short hurdles are the crap shoot I thought it would be. And while on one hand my picks seemed “easy” There are a few women out there that could easily step on in one race in the final. The long hurdle race for the women could come down to a lean for a London ticket.
Jumps
Where is Dwight Philips? In the back of my mind I know he’s going to show up and make a fool of me! The men’s long jump could end up being one of the closest events of the meet. And I have to wonder if Ashton Eaton has considered a Jackie Joyner like long jump/multi event double? Speaking of doubles keep an eye on the duo of Christian Taylor and Will Claye in the horizontal jumps. And if former teammate Omar Craddock slips into that triple jump team I won’t be completely surprised. And my gut says that Amy Acuff has been waiting for this meet.
Throws
The men’s shot put is going to be brutal! One of those can’t miss events that’s VERY deep. I’m also expecting the women’s javelin to be very competitive on the top end – Patterson v Yurkovich could be a biggie.
Multis
The top three in the decathlon are so far ahead of the rest I won’t be surprised to see the vets do just enough to stay ahead and get their tickets to London. Not sure they are going to “compete” hard against each other here. Just my gut.
All that said, here are my predictions for the Trials.
|
Men |
Women |
|
100 |
100 |
| Justin Gatlin | Carmelita Jeter |
| Tyson Gay | Allyson Felix |
| Walter Dix | Tianna Madison |
|
200 |
200 |
| Wallace Spearmon | Allyson Felix |
| Maurice Mitchell | Carmelita Jeter |
| Walter Dix | Kimberlyn Duncan |
|
400 |
400 |
| LaShawn Merritt | Sanya Richards |
| Tony McQuay | Francena McCorory |
| Jeremy Wariner | Diamond Dixon |
|
800 |
800 |
| Charles Jock | Alysia Montano |
| Nick Symmonds | Alice Schmidt |
| Khadevis Robinson | Molly Beckwith |
|
1500 |
1500 |
| Lopez Lamong | Morgan Uceny |
| David Torrence | Jenny Simpson |
| Andrew Wheating | Shannon Rowbury |
|
5000 |
5000 |
| Bernard Lagat | Molly Huddle |
| Lopez Lamong | Jackie Arenson |
| Matt Tegenkamp | Julia Lucas |
|
10000 |
10000 |
| Galen Rupp | Shalane Flanagan |
| Dathan Ritzenhein | Amy Hastings |
| Chris Derrick | Lisa Uhl |
|
Steeple |
Steeple |
| Donn Cabral | Emma Coburn |
| Evan Jager | Sara Hall |
| Dan Huling | Bridget Franek |
|
110 Hurdles |
100 Hurdles |
| Aries Merritt | Dawn Harper |
| David Oliver | Kellie Wells |
| Jason Richardson | Kristi Castlin |
|
400 Hurdles |
400 Hurdles |
| Bershawn Jackson | Lashinda Demus |
| Johnny Dutch | T’erea Brown |
| Jeshua Anderson | Tiffany Williams |
|
High Jump |
High Jump |
| Jesse Williams | Chaunte Lowe |
| Erik Kynard | Brigetta Barrett |
| Jamie Nieto | Amy Acuff |
|
Pole Vault |
Pole Vault |
| Brad Walker | Jenn Suhr |
| Andrew Irwin | Lacy Jansen |
| Jack Whitt | April Steiner Bennett |
|
Long Jump |
Long Jump |
| Will Claye | Brittney Reese |
| Marquis Goodwin | Whitney Gipson |
| George Kitchens | Janay Deloach |
|
Triple Jump |
Triple Jump |
| Christian Taylor | Amanda Smock |
| Will Claye | Erica McLain |
| Arik Wilson | Andrea Geubelle |
|
Shot Put |
Shot Put |
| Reese Hoffa | Jill Camarena Williams |
| Christian Cantwell | Michelle Carter |
| Ryan Whiting | Sarah Stevens Walker |
|
Discus |
Discus |
| Russ Winger | Stephanie Brown Trafton |
| Jason Young | Aretha Thurmond |
| Lance Brooks | Suzy Powell |
|
Hammer |
Hammer |
| A.G. Kruger | Jessica Cosby |
| Kibwe Johnson | Amber Campbell |
| Michael Mai | Jeneva McCall |
|
Javelin |
Javelin |
| Sean Fury | Kara Patterson |
| Tim Glover | Rachel Yurkovich |
| Craig Kinsley | Brittany Borman |
|
Decathlon |
Heptathlon |
| Ashton Eaton | Sharon Day |
| Trey Hardee | Hyleas Fountain |
| Bryan Clay | Bettie Wade |
Tags: olympic trials, Prediction
This is a really good list.
I would put Galen Rupp on the 5k team as well. I know he said he plans to double.
Angelo Taylor also would probably make the hurdle team. He already has 2 sub 49’s and he flat speed as usual is beter than any other hurdler.
Finally, I wouldn’t be surprised if Warnier gets 5th. Berry has proved at Regionals and NCAA’s that he can run fast after rounds. Gil Roberts has done the same and could slip in front of Wariner. Wariner just hasent shown that he has the strength this season. He has literally been getting slower. Yea he is a verteran, but this is an Olympic year, the new commers are stepping it up while Warnier has shown no indication of being US Olympic team potential.
I thought about Rupp .. Especially after his sub 13 .. In my mind I have him 4th .. Taylor, I’m on the fence with – actually he and Batman .. He’s also in my 4th position … Wariner … Man, I don’t know … More of a gut call than anything … Either he’s in or out – like you said 5th or worse … Gil just runs so tight in the stretch … Berry is my 4th here, but could easily move up to 3rd … I think Merritt and McQuay are solid … After that, let’s watch the stretch run …
I thought I read Tegenkamp was only doing the 10K. Even still, I can’t see him beating Rupp in either race. Rupp is about two steps behind the best in the world at the moment (Farah)
I’m just not sure that Rupp doubles … He’s had problems with the air in Eugene on several occasions … Not sure doubling is in his best interests or that he’ll be able to frankly …
I think that Taylor has a best shot in the 400h than Wariner in the 400.
Both are Olympic Champions and know how to handle the pressure of the trials, but in the end of the day I would not be surprised if neither of them make the team.
My thing with Taylor is that age may have caught up with him … Same for Batman … Rounds can be brutal at the Trials … Will have to pace well … Both know how, but Anderson and Dutch have those young legs … Same for Wariner … McQuay and Berry are HUNGRY … It’s going to be tough for Jeremy … Difference in the hurdles and the open is that one BAD hurdle can end the race … And my gut says someone is going to have a bad hurdle … And Taylor tends to run the straights hard but not the turns … I think that is where separation is going to hurt him in the end …
Nice to see Bettie Wade on this list. She went to high school with my daughter. Her junior year in HS, her coach told me he thought he had a future olympian. It would be great to see someone I watched as a prep get to the big dance and fulfill the promise that her coach saw back in ’05.
I think Jeter won’t make the 200 if Richards-Ross is in it.
Wow, tough to say on that one … The thing about Richards Ross is that I’m not sure she can run that fast after rounds .. Not in that event … And in New York she was able to run pretty much alone … Jeter will definitely press the issue on the turn – and Felix will run better there than in recent years … And we can’t forget Solomon and Duncan … This race should press the 22.00 barrier …
Simpson didnt PR in NY- that was an error in the results. It was Jemma Simpson of Great Britain who ran 2:01:xx. Jenny Simpson finished in last place in 2:05:xx.
That, along with a string of poor recent performances, raises serious questions about her current fitness level for me. Safe to say that Uceny is the prohibitive favorite. Simpson will have her hands full with Rowbury, Pierce & Anderson
Well that does change things a bit … If that wasn’t a PR for her then I agree that everything after Uceny is in doubt …
I am going for English Gardner over Felix in the 100m. I don’t see Jeter placing in the 200m. I am going with B.Knight.
Curious to those who don’t think Jeter can make the deuce … Is it based on form off her last race, or just that you think others are better over the distance ?? And what time do you think it will take to win/make the team ??
I am predicting 22.00 flat or a sub 22.00
I think a race that fast favors the pure sprinters and that would be Felix, Jeter, and Duncan with Solomon v R-Ross being very interesting …
Dwight Philips out of OT.
Not a surprise since there are no marks for him this year … The surprise would have been him showing up and making the team – and making a fool out of me !!! LOL ..
What about Manteo Mitchell????? I have him as my sleeper…
I liked Mitchell early .. But with McQuay and Barry blossoming as of late, it makes it hard on someone like Mitchell .. They have young legs AND experience .. And both do well under pressure .. Plus i haven’t seen anything from Mitchell and he’s half a second behind now .. Guys like Mance, Nellum, and Hughes should finish ahead of Mitchell right now .. This is going to be a deep, fast final .. 45.2 should be at the slow end of the race ..
Wow! Stumbled upon this site (lovin’ it) by chance searching for an article on Terrell Trammell. Question. When did you make your trials predictions? Are they in order of predicted finish? You know Jeter’s not running the deuce (from what I read), right? And wow, you’re picking against Angelo making the team in the 400H? (i hope you’re wrong). What’s your projection for the women’s team in London? I wonder if this isn’t the strong U.S. women’s team in generations from top to bottom. No true superstars like FloJo, Decker-Slaney or JJK, but still we’ve certainly got depth & contenders to podium in just about every women’s event (when was the last time that happened? )
I’m glad you stumbled .. I did my predictions after the Oslo/NCAA/New York weekend .. I’ve heard from a good source that Jeter will be in the deuce, so I expect to see her there .. I hope I’m wrong about Angelo because he would be a good story, but this event just seems ready for young legs ..
I do think this will be the strongest women’s team ever .. And there are several star level women, they just don’t get the publicity that JJK, Slaney and Marion got .. Jeter, Felix, Lowe, Reece, Uceny, Camrena Williams are just a few that are right near the top globally and capable of medals ..
Good job but have to go with Montano, Vessey, Beckwith in 800m.