You know, it’s funny how quickly things can change in track and field. In May many “fans” were complaining about how “slow” this year was! I said at the time that there was no reason for athletes to be running fast in April, or May. Not with Trials in late June and the Games a month after that. Yet the mumbling and grumbling continued. Now here we are in July – between the Trials and the Games – and the event lists are burning up! Suddenly, the men’s 100m in Paris is looking like it could be one of the best (I.e. fastest and deepest) ever. As there are two 9.7s, four 9.8s, and a lot of 9.9s headed to Paris on the current yearly list. And if history prevails, based on racing patterns and coaches, some of these men will run even faster in Paris. With the Olympics just a couple of weeks away, it’s time to take a look at the top entrants and their potential at the Games. So that there’s no confusion, I’ll discuss them in the order that they currently sit on the yearly list. Not necessarily how I see them finishing in Paris, because times don’t run athletes do. So let’s take a look at the top sprinters going to Paris.
Kishane Thompson (9.77 – Jamaica) – Thompson is literally Jamaica’s latest sprint sensation. Emerging at this year’s trials. While everyone was looking at Seville last year, I felt that this kid was their future. Big, strong, and with attitude. He’s got a solid race pattern with few weaknesses. Good start, solid transition, strong finish. He “should” be a finalist and in the mix. This will be his first “major” however. So we’ll see how he handles the rounds and the pressure. It’s rare that someone wins gold their first time on the big stage.
Ferdinand Omanyala (9.79 – Kenya) – Omanyala is known for running fast in the altitude of Kenya. He falls off however, against the rest of the world, when he comes down from altitude, and what I call the “friendly timing” in Africa. It will most likely take 9.8 to get into the Paris final. So, this will be his test. Can he produce a fast time, in a hot semi when it matters. If he can, he may have a shot. If not, he’ll have a nice seat for the final.
Oblique Seville (9.82 – Jamaica) – Seville broke through last year, making the Budapest final, then placing fourth. He’s a bit faster this year, with experience. So potentially should be a finalist again. I expect both the Paris semis and final to be faster than Budapest however. So improving his placing will be difficult. With Christian Coleman not making the US team, Seville will be the fastest starter in the field – the rabbit! The key for Oblique will be how well he handles the impending rush after the first 60m of both races, should he get past the semi!
Noah Lyles (9.83 – USA) – Last year’s world champion, he’s already equalled his personal best. Noah has a history of improving in big meets. If he wants gold, he will have to do exactly that. As it could take 9.7 to win this one. Maybe even 9.6 as this field is full of gamers and strong finishers. He’s improved his 60m indoors which typically means faster 100s and 200s for Noah. We’ll see if that translates in Paris. So far each season he’s improved indoors, that has been the case. Noah is known for his top end speed. I’m dying to see Noah v Kishane from 60m to the finish. That should be exciting and could decide this race.
Kenny Bednarek (9.87 – USA) – Kenny has run well in the 100m this year and improved his personal best. He’s become adept at the event, with a solid start and strong finish, but needs to be about.05 to .10sec faster to think about the podium. He has dropped his 200m time precipitously as well and seems to be on a mission to gain respect. A sprinter looking to move up in both finish and respect is often a dangerous sprinter. One that shouldn’t be overlooked. I believe Kenny is that guy entering Paris.
Fred Kerley (9.88 – USA)- Fred has two things in his favor. He’s run 9.7 on multiple occasions in the past. He’s also a multi time medalist, winning gold at Worlds and silver in the Olympics in the 100m. This after winning a bronze in the quarter. So Fred knows how to run rounds, and he’s used to the pressure of a major final. Quiet as it’s kept, Fred is the most experienced sprinter in the group! Most importantly, Fred believes he can win! And he needs to improve the least to do so. In Eugene, he showed that that is a possibility, as his season seems to be improving at the right time.
Akani Simbine (9.90 – South Africa) – Simbine is one of those sprinters that has been consistently making finals. The question this year is two fold. Can he get to the final in this deep crowded field. Second, can he step up once there and get a medal? This group may be too deep for Simbine. He consistently makes finals, because he can get to 9.9 when he needs to. It could take 9.8 to get into this final. However history says that someone in this final will run an unexpected 9.8 and do just that. It could be Simbine.
Lamont Jacobs (9.92 – Italy) – The sprinter that stepped up out of his normal in Tokyo was Jacobs. He began the year with a best of 10.10. Entered Tokyo with a best of 9.95. Then improved in each round and won gold. He’s not been able to get close since. Not breaking 10.00 again until a few weeks ago. Given his history before Tokyo and his history since, several questions surround Jacobs. Was Tokyo an outlier? Is he again on the upswing? Can he handle the depth of this field? Can he repeat as champion? We’ll get all the answers in two weeks.
Favour Ashe (9.94 – Nigeria) – Currently Ashe seems to be the best of a young group of Nigerians with exciting potential. A smooth sprinter, when he’s on he looks like he could be the best in the world. Ashe is indeed capable of the type of rise that Jacobs had in ’21. He’s got the skill set. Even the injury history. He just needs to be able to survive three tough rounds in Paris. Can he do that?
In the early 2000’s the Jamaican men suddenly exploded onto the scene. They had a lull post Bolt/Powell (after 2017) but clearly that was a lull with a new pair of athletes under 9.90. While I only spoke of one Nigerian athlete, they have several young men with the potential to run something special. South America also has a couple of sprinters that could be in the mix. Take note that there are also athletes in Canada and various parts of the Caribbean outside of Jamaica with the potential to step up as well. And I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the Brits. Their national champion, Louie Hinchcliff, was also the NCAA champion. He’s “only” run 9.95, but he’s a tough competitor. Last year’s World bronze medalist, Zharnel Hughes, has been nursing a hamstring injury and has been given a medical pass to join the British team in Paris. If healthy, he can contend for the podium. Similarly Budapest silver medalist, Botswanan Letsile Tebogo, has missed time racing since the passing of his mother in mid May. Prior to this however, he was at the top of nearly every sprint list. Having run 19.71, 30.69 (WR), and 44.21. I expect him to show up in Paris ready to compete. I don’t think I’ve left anyone off of note except the 10.10 guy that finds his way to the final.
This is the crowded field that will show up in Paris. To be honest, on paper this will be the deepest group of 100m sprinters to ever enter an Olympic stadium. Making this what the 100m is traditionally, a central event in Paris. Barring headwinds in Paris, this is going to be a burner. Fast and deep. They will be running on a new, purple surface laid by Mondo. The creator of tracks engineered to be fast! It may not end in a world record, but it will be one of the best races ever from top to bottom.
The two Diamond League events prior to the Games, Paris and Monaco, do not have a men’s 100m. Both have a 200m, but only Lyles and Tebogo will be competing in the Monaco race among 100m contenders. So we’re heading to Paris blind. With our last vision of these athletes being their trials races. Based on that, the history of the athletes, and the history of their coaches, I’m going to predict the following athletes will be in the final. In no particular order: Noah Lyles, Fred Kerley, Oblique Seville, Letsile Tebogo, Kishane Thompson, Kenny Bednarek, Terrence Jones, Lamont Jacobs, and Louis Hinchcliff. I’ve selected finalists in this event a few times now and come up with different iterations, but with the same core. I need to give it a bit more thought, but I’ll come back with my podium prediction before the Paris opening round. In the meantime, Paris and Monaco should tide everyone over.